Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Phyllanthus emblica Linn across Southeast Asia: identifying critical variables that determine the distribution of a medicinally important tree

The demand for the fruits of Phyllanthus emblica, an important tree species with a long history of medicinal use, has risen tremendously in recent years. The rapid decline in the distribution of the species can be attributed to habitat loss, climate change, invasive species, extensive harvesting, and various other anthropogenic disturbances. In the present study, we modelled the potential habitat distribution of Phyllanthus emblica (Indian gooseberry) across Asia. The current and future climatic scenarios are predicted using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and the latest climate model Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP). The model constructed using Representative Concentration Pathway had the mean value of Area Under Curve (AUC) 0.970 and 0.975 for the Shared Socio-economic Pathway. The study indicated that some of the highly suitable habitats in Asia could become unsuitable and climatic variables combined with human activities could significantly impact species distribution in near future.