利用太阳轨道器作为上游太阳风监测器进行实时空间天气预测

IF 3.7 2区 地球科学 Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI:10.1029/2023sw003628
R. Laker, T. S. Horbury, H. O’Brien, E. J. Fauchon-Jones, V. Angelini, N. Fargette, T. Amerstorfer, M. Bauer, C. Möstl, E. E. Davies, J. A. Davies, R. Harrison, D. Barnes, M. Dumbović
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引用次数: 0

摘要

日冕物质抛射(CMEs)会对地球上的人类活动和系统造成严重破坏,如果事先对上游太阳风状况发出警告,则可以减轻大部分破坏。然而,目前仅靠日冕仪图像来准确预测日冕物质抛射的到达时间和内部结构是极具挑战性的。在这项研究中,我们利用了一次难得的机会,将位于地球上游 0.5 au 处的太阳轨道器用作上游太阳风监测器。结合 STEREO-A 的低延迟图像,我们成功地预测了两个 CME 事件在到达地球之前的到达时间。太阳轨道器的测量结果被用来约束 ELEvoHI 模型的模拟运行集合,在第一个案例研究中,到达时间的不确定性从 10.4 小时减少到 2.5 小时。在第二项案例研究中,尽管太阳轨道器和 Wind 航天器相距 0.5 au 和经度 10°,但它们的 Bz 曲线也非常一致。利用太阳轨道器作为上游太阳风监测器的机会将每年重复一次,这将进一步有助于评估上游原地测量在实时空间天气预报中的功效。
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Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5 au upstream of Earth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. In combination with low-latency images from STEREO-A, we successfully predicted the arrival time of two CME events before they reached Earth. Measurements at Solar Orbiter were used to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHI model, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4 to 2.5 hr in the first case study. There was also an excellent agreement in the Bz profile between Solar Orbiter and Wind spacecraft for the second case study, despite being separated by 0.5 au and 10° longitude. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further help assess the efficacy upstream in-situ measurements in real time space weather forecasting.
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