Devin Wasilefsky , William N. Caballero , Chancellor Johnstone , Nathan Gaw , Phillip R. Jenkins
{"title":"为美国空军飞行员候选人选拔提供负责任的机器学习","authors":"Devin Wasilefsky , William N. Caballero , Chancellor Johnstone , Nathan Gaw , Phillip R. Jenkins","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114198","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The United States Air Force (USAF) continues to be plagued by a chronic pilot shortage, one that could be exacerbated by an accompanying shortfall in the commercial airlines. As a result, efforts have increased to alleviate this shortage by finding methods to reduce pilot training attrition. We contribute to these efforts by setting forth a decision support system (DSS) for pilot candidate selection using modern machine learning techniques. In view of the recent Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy published by the United States Department of Defense, this research leverages interpretable and explainable machine learning methods to create traceable and equitable models that may be responsibly and reliably governed. These models are used to regress candidates’ average merit assignment selection system scores based on information available for selection and prior to training. More specifically, using data provided by the USAF from 2010 to 2018, this paper develops and analyzes multiple interpretable models based on Gaussian Bayesian networks, as well as multiple black-box models rendered explainable by SHAP values and conformal prediction. A preferred pair of interpretable and explainable models is selected and embedded within a DSS for USAF pilot candidate selection boards: the Air Force Pilot Applicant Selection System. The utilization of this DSS is explored, the analyses it enables are discussed, and relevant USAF policymaking issues are examined.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 114198"},"PeriodicalIF":6.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Responsible machine learning for United States Air Force pilot candidate selection\",\"authors\":\"Devin Wasilefsky , William N. Caballero , Chancellor Johnstone , Nathan Gaw , Phillip R. Jenkins\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114198\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The United States Air Force (USAF) continues to be plagued by a chronic pilot shortage, one that could be exacerbated by an accompanying shortfall in the commercial airlines. As a result, efforts have increased to alleviate this shortage by finding methods to reduce pilot training attrition. We contribute to these efforts by setting forth a decision support system (DSS) for pilot candidate selection using modern machine learning techniques. In view of the recent Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy published by the United States Department of Defense, this research leverages interpretable and explainable machine learning methods to create traceable and equitable models that may be responsibly and reliably governed. These models are used to regress candidates’ average merit assignment selection system scores based on information available for selection and prior to training. More specifically, using data provided by the USAF from 2010 to 2018, this paper develops and analyzes multiple interpretable models based on Gaussian Bayesian networks, as well as multiple black-box models rendered explainable by SHAP values and conformal prediction. A preferred pair of interpretable and explainable models is selected and embedded within a DSS for USAF pilot candidate selection boards: the Air Force Pilot Applicant Selection System. The utilization of this DSS is explored, the analyses it enables are discussed, and relevant USAF policymaking issues are examined.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55181,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Decision Support Systems\",\"volume\":\"180 \",\"pages\":\"Article 114198\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Decision Support Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167923624000319\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Decision Support Systems","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167923624000319","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Responsible machine learning for United States Air Force pilot candidate selection
The United States Air Force (USAF) continues to be plagued by a chronic pilot shortage, one that could be exacerbated by an accompanying shortfall in the commercial airlines. As a result, efforts have increased to alleviate this shortage by finding methods to reduce pilot training attrition. We contribute to these efforts by setting forth a decision support system (DSS) for pilot candidate selection using modern machine learning techniques. In view of the recent Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy published by the United States Department of Defense, this research leverages interpretable and explainable machine learning methods to create traceable and equitable models that may be responsibly and reliably governed. These models are used to regress candidates’ average merit assignment selection system scores based on information available for selection and prior to training. More specifically, using data provided by the USAF from 2010 to 2018, this paper develops and analyzes multiple interpretable models based on Gaussian Bayesian networks, as well as multiple black-box models rendered explainable by SHAP values and conformal prediction. A preferred pair of interpretable and explainable models is selected and embedded within a DSS for USAF pilot candidate selection boards: the Air Force Pilot Applicant Selection System. The utilization of this DSS is explored, the analyses it enables are discussed, and relevant USAF policymaking issues are examined.
期刊介绍:
The common thread of articles published in Decision Support Systems is their relevance to theoretical and technical issues in the support of enhanced decision making. The areas addressed may include foundations, functionality, interfaces, implementation, impacts, and evaluation of decision support systems (DSSs).