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Bridging information systems and marketing: Charting collaborative pathways 连接信息系统与市场营销:规划合作途径
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114328

Corporate information systems (IS) functions have become ever closer and more intertwined with firms' marketing functions. Marketing technology and e-commerce implementations require synergy between these functions, which has been reflected in the emergence of researchers and practitioners who can work at the intersection of these disciplines. This article utilizes a systematic literature review to understand this environment and to provide a forward-looking analysis of research at the intersection of IS and marketing. First, a business-focused introduction describes the motivation for the review and puts it into context. This is followed by a bibliographic analysis to select articles at this intersection. A semi-automated content analysis of the selected articles groups them into homogeneous research clusters and further analysis is used to develop cluster themes. This process sheds light on the potential areas of collaboration, offering an in-depth comprehension of their symbiotic relationship. A set of pathways for future research is described based on “collaboration areas” between IS and marketing. These areas, including consumer trust and decision making, social media, online reviews, mobile platforms & apps, and marketing channels, among others, represent the specific areas where marketing and IS overlap and mutually influence each other. Insights are presented on bridging academia and industry and suggestions are proposed for enhancing research at the junction of IS and marketing.

企业信息系统(IS)职能与企业营销职能的关系越来越密切、越来越紧密。营销技术和电子商务的实施需要这些职能之间的协同作用,这反映在能够在这些学科交叉点开展工作的研究人员和从业人员的出现上。本文通过系统的文献综述来了解这一环境,并对信息系统与市场营销交叉领域的研究进行前瞻性分析。首先,以商业为重点的引言描述了进行综述的动机,并将其置于背景之中。随后进行了书目分析,选择了与这一交叉领域相关的文章。对所选文章进行半自动内容分析,将其归入同类研究集群,并通过进一步分析来确定集群主题。这一过程揭示了潜在的合作领域,深入理解了它们之间的共生关系。根据信息系统与市场营销之间的 "合作领域",描述了一套未来研究路径。这些领域包括消费者信任与决策、社交媒体、在线评论、移动平台& 应用程序和营销渠道等,代表了市场营销和信息系统相互重叠、相互影响的具体领域。文章就如何连接学术界和产业界提出了见解,并就如何加强信息系统和市场营销交界处的研究提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Channel and bundling strategies: Forging a “win-win” paradigm in product and service operations 渠道和捆绑战略:打造产品和服务运营的 "双赢 "模式
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114325

While many companies have benefited from online sales as their sole sales channel with the rapid growth of online retailing, this approach has limitations, especially for products that contain non-digital information and require a complementary service to fully attract customers. Sellers of these types of products are actively considering or have already adopted a multichannel strategy, which includes maintaining the existing online channel and opening physical brick-and-mortar stores. To stimulate sales, the service operator may consider offering a product bundle with the product manufacturer by providing subsidies to them. Decisions on product bundling could potentially facilitate or pose barriers to channel expansion. This study employs a game-theoretic model to explore the optimal pricing, multichannel and bundling strategies for a product manufacturer and a service operator who offer the core products with ancillary services in either bundled or non-bundled format. Our equilibrium analysis yields several insights. First, the manufacturer’s offline expansion allows customers who visit in-store to try and inspect the product, which raises not only the offline price but also the manufacturer’s online price. Interestingly, this price increase is more significant for the bundled format compared to the non-bundled format. Second, the bundling strategy influences the manufacturer’s decision to expand into multichannel operations. Specifically, product bundling incentivises multichannel expansion if the newly added physical stores can attract a significant number of new customers, indicating that demand spillover is significant. Conversely, product bundling may deter multichannel expansion if the online hassle cost is moderate.

随着网络零售的快速发展,许多公司将网络销售作为唯一的销售渠道,并从中获益,但这种方式存在局限性,尤其是对于那些包含非数字信息、需要配套服务才能充分吸引顾客的产品而言。这类产品的销售商正在积极考虑或已经采取多渠道战略,包括维持现有的在线渠道和开设实体店。为刺激销售,服务运营商可考虑与产品制造商捆绑销售产品,向其提供补贴。关于产品捆绑的决策可能会促进渠道扩张,也可能会对渠道扩张构成障碍。本研究采用博弈论模型,探讨了产品制造商和服务运营商的最优定价、多渠道和捆绑策略,他们以捆绑或非捆绑的形式提供核心产品和配套服务。我们的均衡分析得出了几点启示。首先,制造商的线下扩张可以让到店的顾客试用和检验产品,这不仅会提高线下价格,还会提高制造商的线上价格。有趣的是,与非捆绑形式相比,捆绑形式的价格上涨更为显著。其次,捆绑策略会影响制造商拓展多渠道业务的决策。具体来说,如果新增加的实体店能吸引大量新客户,那么产品捆绑就会激励多渠道扩张,这表明需求溢出效应非常明显。相反,如果网上麻烦成本适中,产品捆绑可能会阻碍多渠道扩张。
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引用次数: 0
How credibility assessment technologies affect decision fairness in evidence-based investigations: A Bayesian perspective 可信度评估技术如何影响循证调查中的决策公平性:贝叶斯视角
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114326

Recently, a growing number of credibility assessment technologies (CATs) have been developed to assist human decision-making processes in evidence-based investigations, such as criminal investigations, financial fraud detection, and insurance claim verification. Despite the widespread adoption of CATs, it remains unclear how CAT and human biases interact during the evidence-collection procedure and affect the fairness of investigation outcomes. To address this gap, we develop a Bayesian framework to model CAT adoption and the iterative collection and interpretation of evidence in investigations. Based on the Bayesian framework, we further conduct simulations to examine how CATs affect investigation fairness with various configurations of evidence effectiveness, CAT effectiveness, human biases, technological biases, and decision stakes. We find that when investigators are unconscious of their own biases, CAT adoption generally increases the fairness of investigation outcomes if the CAT is more effective than evidence and less biased than the investigators. However, the CATs' positive influence on fairness diminishes as humans become aware of their own biases. Our results show that CATs' impact on decision fairness highly depends on various technological, human, and contextual factors. We further discuss the implications for CAT development, evaluation, and adoption based on our findings.

最近,越来越多的可信度评估技术(CAT)被开发出来,以协助人类在基于证据的调查(如刑事调查、金融欺诈侦查和保险索赔核查)中的决策过程。尽管 CAT 已被广泛采用,但目前仍不清楚 CAT 和人类偏见在证据收集过程中如何相互作用并影响调查结果的公正性。为了弥补这一不足,我们开发了一个贝叶斯框架,用于模拟 CAT 的采用以及调查过程中证据的迭代收集和解释。在贝叶斯框架的基础上,我们进一步进行了模拟,研究了在证据有效性、计算机辅助调查有效性、人为偏差、技术偏差和决策利害关系的不同配置下,计算机辅助调查如何影响调查的公平性。我们发现,当调查人员没有意识到自己的偏见时,如果计算机辅助调查比证据更有效,而且比调查人员的偏见更少,那么采用计算机辅助调查一般会提高调查结果的公正性。然而,当人类意识到自身的偏见时,计算机辅助调查对公平性的积极影响就会减弱。我们的研究结果表明,计算机辅助调查对决策公平性的影响在很大程度上取决于各种技术、人为和环境因素。根据我们的研究结果,我们进一步讨论了计算机辅助翻译工具的开发、评估和采用的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the co-diffusion of competing memes in online social networks 在线社交网络中相互竞争的流行语的共同扩散建模
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114324

Online social networks have greatly facilitated the spread of information of all sorts. Meanwhile, the abundance of information in today's world also means different pieces of information will increasingly compete for people's finite attention. When different pieces of information spread together in an online social network, why would some become trendy while others fail to emerge? Existing research either models the diffusion of each piece of information independently, or fails to consider users' inactivity in online social networks. Modeling each piece of information as a meme, this paper addresses this gap by proposing a unified model for the co-diffusion of competing memes simultaneously spreading across an online social network. We are the first to identify a ubiquitous threshold for competing meme. The threshold also functions as an effective predictor that contributes to better performance in determining the outcome of meme competitions. Outcomes from this study have important implications for online campaigns and mobilizations as well as the fight against misinformation.

在线社交网络极大地促进了各类信息的传播。同时,当今世界信息的丰富性也意味着不同的信息将越来越多地争夺人们有限的注意力。当不同的信息在在线社交网络中共同传播时,为什么有些信息会成为潮流,而另一些信息却没有出现呢?现有研究要么将每条信息的传播单独建模,要么没有考虑用户在在线社交网络中的不活跃情况。本文将每条信息都建模为一个meme,针对这一缺陷,提出了一个统一的模型,用于描述在线社交网络中同时传播的相互竞争的meme的共同扩散。我们首次确定了一个无处不在的竞争记忆阈值。该阈值也是一个有效的预测因子,有助于更好地判断流行语竞争的结果。这项研究的成果对在线活动和动员以及打击错误信息具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
What can we learn from multimorbidity? A deep dive from its risk patterns to the corresponding patient profiles 我们能从多病症中学到什么?从风险模式到相应的患者概况的深入研究
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114313

Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more chronic conditions within an individual, represents one of the most intricate challenges for global health systems. Traditional single-disease management often fails to address the multifaceted nature of multimorbidity. Network model emerges as a growing field for elucidating the interconnections among multimorbidity. However, the field lacks a standardized method to compute and visually represent of these networks. Given the challenges, this study proposes a three-stage methodology to decipher multimorbidity. First, we integrate the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) method with the multimorbidity encapsulation framework to develop the Multimorbidity Risk Network (MRN). Second, we use complex network techniques to identify high-risk patterns within MRN communities. Finally, we apply machine learning techniques to correlate these communities with the biological attributes of patients that have been marginalized in most studies. Our approach advocates a paradigm shift from the conventional focus on single diseases to a holistic, patient-centric approach, providing decision-makers with integrated information technology artifacts for deciphering the multimorbidity.

多病症是指一个人同时患有两种或两种以上的慢性疾病,是全球卫生系统面临的最复杂的挑战之一。传统的单一疾病管理往往无法解决多病症的多面性。网络模型是一个不断发展的领域,可用于阐明多病之间的相互联系。然而,该领域缺乏计算和直观表示这些网络的标准化方法。鉴于上述挑战,本研究提出了一种分三个阶段的方法来解读多病症。首先,我们将故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)方法与多病症封装框架相结合,开发出多病症风险网络(MRN)。其次,我们使用复杂网络技术来识别 MRN 社区内的高风险模式。最后,我们应用机器学习技术将这些群落与大多数研究中被边缘化的患者生物属性联系起来。我们的方法倡导从传统的关注单一疾病到以患者为中心的整体方法的范式转变,为决策者提供综合的信息技术工具,用于解读多病症。
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引用次数: 0
Emotional expressions of care and concern by customer service chatbots: Improved customer attitudes despite perceived inauthenticity 客户服务聊天机器人表达关爱的情感表达:尽管认为聊天机器人不真实,但客户态度仍得到改善
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114314

In customer service, emotional expressions by chatbots are considered a promising direction to improve customer experience. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of how and when chatbots' emotional expressions improve customer attitudes. Although chatbots' emotional expressions of care and concern may feel inauthentic to customers in the inferential path, which can negatively affects customer attitudes, we propose that the positive effect of the affective reactions path can result in a positive effect on customer attitude based on the dual-path view of Emotions as Social Information (EASI). The relative strengths of the two EASI paths can be moderated, and we explored the moderating effects of rational thinking styles (information processing in EASI) and beliefs in computer emotion (perceived appropriateness in EASI). According to EASI, situation can affect the meaning of emotions, so we conducted experiments in two situations. With chatbot identity disclosure, we found that the chatbot's emotional expressions reduce customers' perceived authenticity (reflecting the inferential path in EASI) but ultimately improve customer attitudes. Belief in computer emotions and rational thinking style moderated the negative relationship between emotional expressions and authenticity. With chatbot identity non-disclosure, the chatbot's emotional expressions still improve customer attitudes but with no effect on authenticity. Because there is high likelihood of chatbot identities being discovered by customers, this finding of the moderating effect of perceived humanness on authenticity is highly relevant. Our findings make important contributions to research on computer emotion and service authenticity.

在客户服务领域,聊天机器人的情感表达被认为是改善客户体验的一个有前途的方向。然而,人们对聊天机器人的情感表达如何以及何时改善客户态度还缺乏全面了解。虽然在推论路径中,聊天机器人的关心和关注等情感表达可能会让客户感觉不真实,从而对客户态度产生负面影响,但我们基于情感即社会信息(EASI)的双路径观点,提出情感反应路径的积极作用会对客户态度产生积极影响。EASI 两种路径的相对强度是可以调节的,我们探讨了理性思维方式(EASI 中的信息处理)和计算机情感信念(EASI 中的适当性认知)的调节作用。根据 EASI,情境会影响情感的意义,因此我们在两种情境中进行了实验。在聊天机器人身份披露的情况下,我们发现聊天机器人的情感表达会降低客户的感知真实性(反映了 EASI 中的推理路径),但最终会改善客户的态度。对计算机情感的信念和理性思维方式调节了情感表达与真实性之间的负相关关系。在聊天机器人身份不公开的情况下,聊天机器人的情感表达仍能改善客户态度,但对真实性没有影响。由于聊天机器人的身份很有可能被客户发现,因此感知到的人性对真实性的调节作用这一发现非常有意义。我们的发现为计算机情感和服务真实性研究做出了重要贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Approaches to improve preprocessing for Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling 改进潜在德里希勒分配主题建模预处理的方法
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114310

As a part of natural language processing (NLP), the intent of topic modeling is to identify topics in textual corpora with limited human input. Current topic modeling techniques, like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), are limited in the pre-processing steps and currently require human judgement, increasing analysis time and opportunities for error. The purpose of this research is to allay some of those limitations by introducing new approaches to improve coherence without adding computational complexity and provide an objective method for determining the number of topics within a corpus. First, we identify a requirement for a more robust stop words list and introduce a new dimensionality-reduction heuristic that exploits the number of words within a document to infer importance to word choice. Second, we develop an eigenvalue technique to determine the number of topics within a corpus. Third, we combine all of these techniques into the Zimm Approach, which produces higher quality results than LDA in determining the number of topics within a corpus. The Zimm Approach, when tested against various subsets of the 20newsgroup dataset, produced the correct number of topics in 7 of 9 subsets vs. 0 of 9 using highest coherence value produced by LDA.

作为自然语言处理(NLP)的一部分,主题建模的目的是在有限的人工输入下识别文本语料库中的主题。当前的主题建模技术,如潜在德里希勒分配(LDA),在预处理步骤中受到限制,目前需要人工判断,从而增加了分析时间和出错机会。本研究的目的是通过引入新方法,在不增加计算复杂性的情况下提高一致性,并提供一种确定语料库中主题数量的客观方法,从而缓解上述限制。首先,我们确定了对更强大的停滞词列表的要求,并引入了一种新的降维启发式,利用文档中的单词数量来推断单词选择的重要性。其次,我们开发了一种特征值技术来确定语料库中的主题数量。第三,我们将所有这些技术结合到 Zimm 方法中,该方法在确定语料库中的主题数方面比 LDA 得出的结果质量更高。在对 20newsgroup 数据集的不同子集进行测试时,Zimm 方法在 9 个子集中的 7 个得出了正确的主题数,而使用 LDA 得出的最高一致性值则在 9 个子集中得出了 0 个正确的主题数。
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引用次数: 0
Learning-based dynamic pricing strategy with pay-per-chapter mode for online publisher with case study of COL 基于学习的动态定价策略--在线出版商按章节付费模式(附 COL 案例研究
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114311

We consider how to make dynamic pricing decision for Chinese Online (COL) at T time-points, an online publisher that allow authors to sell their ongoing book projects. Instead of paying for a book, readers pay for each chapter (pay-per-chapter mode) of the ongoing book project. This mode allows readers to pay for as many chapters as they want without taking the risk that the releasing of new chapters might be delayed or stopped. Despite of the dynamics of chapter-by-chapter released of COL products, the fixed pricing strategy (FPS) does not make fully use of the reading data generated by releasing chapters of the ongoing book. We propose a learning-based dynamic pricing strategy (LDPS) that exploits the newly information to maximize cumulative revenue for the publisher. The LDPS captures the ever changing features of readers. It employs the Thompson sampling method to balance the exploration of investigating different prices sufficiently with the exploitation of settling on the optimal price. Taking COL as a case study and implementing our strategy in the context of the aforementioned real-life data set, we show that LDPS outperform several classical strategies such as Greedy, Prior-Free TS and Prior-Given TS, and average revenue of LDPS is increased by 0.5 % average per time-point compared to the publisher's historical decisions. We also provide some management implications for the COL publisher by analyzing the pricing range of different genres of books and the choice of the exploration threshold parameter.

中文在线(COL)是一家允许作者销售其正在进行的图书项目的在线出版商,我们考虑的是如何在 T 个时间点为中文在线做出动态定价决策。读者不是为一本书付费,而是为正在进行的图书项目的每一章付费(按章付费模式)。这种模式允许读者按章节付费,而不必承担新章节发布可能被推迟或停止的风险。尽管 COL 产品具有逐章发布的动态性,但固定定价策略(FPS)并不能充分利用正在进行的图书章节发布所产生的阅读数据。我们提出了一种基于学习的动态定价策略(LDPS),它能利用新信息为出版商带来最大的累积收益。LDPS 抓住了读者不断变化的特点。它采用汤普森抽样方法,在充分调查不同价格的探索与确定最佳价格的利用之间取得平衡。我们以 COL 为案例,在上述真实数据集的背景下实施了我们的策略,结果表明 LDPS 优于贪婪策略、无优先权 TS 和优先权给定 TS 等几种经典策略,与出版商的历史决策相比,LDPS 的平均收入在每个时间点平均提高了 0.5%。我们还通过分析不同类型图书的定价范围和探索阈值参数的选择,为 COL 出版商提供了一些管理启示。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability estimation for individual predictions in machine learning systems: A model reliability-based approach 机器学习系统中单个预测的可靠性估计:基于模型可靠性的方法
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114305
<div><p>The conventional aggregated performance measure (i.e., mean squared error) with respect to the whole dataset would not provide desired safety and quality assurance for each individual prediction made by a machine learning model in risk-sensitive regression problems. In this paper, we propose an informative indicator <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced></math></span> to quantify model reliability for individual prediction (MRIP) for the purpose of safeguarding the usage of machine learning (ML) models in mission-critical applications. Specifically, we define the reliability of a ML model with respect to its prediction on each individual input <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> as the probability of the observed difference between the prediction of ML model and the actual observation falling within a small interval when the input <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> varies within a small range subject to a preset distance constraint, namely <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced><mo>=</mo><mi>P</mi><mfenced><mrow></mrow><mrow><msup><mi>y</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup><mo>−</mo><msup><mover><mi>y</mi><mo>̂</mo></mover><mo>∗</mo></msup></mrow><mrow><mspace></mspace><mo>≤</mo><mi>ε</mi></mrow><mrow><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup><mo>∈</mo><mi>B</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced></mrow></mfenced></math></span>, where <span><math><msup><mi>y</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math></span> denotes the observed target value for the input <span><math><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup><mo>,</mo></math></span> <span><math><msup><mover><mi>y</mi><mo>̂</mo></mover><mo>∗</mo></msup></math></span> denotes the model prediction for the input <span><math><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math></span>, and <span><math><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math></span> is an input in the neighborhood of <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> subject to the constraint <span><math><mi>B</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced><mo>=</mo><mfenced><mrow><mfenced><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></mfenced><mspace></mspace><mfenced><mrow><msup><mi>x</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup><mo>−</mo><mi>x</mi></mrow></mfenced><mo>≤</mo><mi>δ</mi></mrow></mfenced></math></span>. The developed MRIP indicator <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced></math></span> provides a direct, objective, quantitative, and general-purpose measure of “reliability” or the probability of success of the ML model for each individual prediction by fully exploiting the local information associated with the input <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> and ML model. Next, to mitigate the intensive computational effort involved in MRIP estimation, we develop a two-stage ML-based framework to directly learn the relationship between <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> and its MRIP <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced></math></span>, thus enabling to provide the reliability estimate <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi><mfenced><mi>x</mi></mfenced></math></span> for any unseen input instantly. Thirdly, we pr
在风险敏感回归问题中,传统的针对整个数据集的汇总性能指标(即均方误差)无法为机器学习模型所做的每个单独预测提供所需的安全和质量保证。在本文中,我们提出了一个信息指标ℛx 来量化单个预测的模型可靠性(MRIP),以保障机器学习(ML)模型在关键任务应用中的使用。具体来说,我们将 ML 模型对每个输入 x 的预测可靠性定义为:当输入 x 在一个小范围内变化时,ML 模型的预测值与实际观测值之间的差值落在一个小区间内的概率,该小区间受预设距离约束、即ℛx=Py∗-ŷ∗≤εx∗∈Bx,其中 y∗ 表示输入 x∗ 的观测目标值、ŷ∗ 表示输入 x∗ 的模型预测值,x∗ 是 x 附近的输入,受 Bx=x∗x∗-x≤δ 约束。所开发的 MRIP 指标ℛx 通过充分利用与输入 x 和 ML 模型相关的本地信息,为每个单独预测的 "可靠性 "或 ML 模型的成功概率提供了直接、客观、定量和通用的衡量标准。其次,为了减轻 MRIP 估计所需的大量计算工作,我们开发了一个基于 ML 的两阶段框架,直接学习 x 与其 MRIP ℛx 之间的关系,从而能够为任何未见输入即时提供可靠性估计ℛx。第三,我们提出了一种基于信息增益的方法,帮助确定ℛx 的阈值,以支持何时接受或放弃依赖 ML 模型预测的决策。在广泛的现实世界数据集上进行的综合计算实验以及与现有方法的定量比较表明,所开发的基于 ML 的 MRIP 估算框架在提高单个预测的可靠性估计方面表现出色,因此,当在风险敏感环境中采用 ML 模型时,MRIP 指标ℛx 提供了一层必不可少的安全网。
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Specifically, we define the reliability of a ML model with respect to its prediction on each individual input &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; as the probability of the observed difference between the prediction of ML model and the actual observation falling within a small interval when the input &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; varies within a small range subject to a preset distance constraint, namely &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;ℛ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;P&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mover&gt;&lt;mi&gt;y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;̂&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mover&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≤&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;ε&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∈&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, where &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; denotes the observed target value for the input &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mover&gt;&lt;mi&gt;y&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;̂&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mover&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; denotes the model prediction for the input &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, and &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; is an input in the neighborhood of &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; subject to the constraint &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;∗&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;mo&gt;≤&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. The developed MRIP indicator &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;ℛ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; provides a direct, objective, quantitative, and general-purpose measure of “reliability” or the probability of success of the ML model for each individual prediction by fully exploiting the local information associated with the input &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; and ML model. Next, to mitigate the intensive computational effort involved in MRIP estimation, we develop a two-stage ML-based framework to directly learn the relationship between &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; and its MRIP &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;ℛ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, thus enabling to provide the reliability estimate &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;ℛ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mfenced&gt;&lt;mi&gt;x&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mfenced&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; for any unseen input instantly. Thirdly, we pr","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142151016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generalized visible curvature: An indicator for bubble identification and price trend prediction in cryptocurrencies 广义可见曲率:加密货币泡沫识别和价格趋势预测指标
IF 6.7 1区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114309

We propose a novel curvature-based indicator constructed on log-price time series that captures an interplay between trend, acceleration, and volatility found relevant to quantify risks and improve trading strategies. We apply it to diagnose explosive bubble-like behaviors in cryptocurrency price time series and provide early warning signals of impending market shifts or increased volatility. This improves significantly on standard statistical tests such as the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and the Backward SADF tests. Furthermore, the incorporation of our curvature-based indicator as a feature into the Light Gradient Boosting Machine enhances its predictive capabilities, as measured by classification accuracy and trading performance.

我们提出了一种基于对数价格时间序列的新型曲率指标,该指标能捕捉趋势、加速度和波动性之间的相互作用,可用于量化风险和改进交易策略。我们将其用于诊断加密货币价格时间序列中的爆炸性泡沫行为,并为即将发生的市场变化或波动性增加提供预警信号。这大大改进了标准统计测试,如广义上扩增迪基-富勒(GSADF)和后向 SADF 测试。此外,将我们基于曲率的指标作为一个特征纳入光梯度提升机,还增强了它的预测能力,具体体现在分类准确性和交易性能上。
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引用次数: 0
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Decision Support Systems
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