The Effect of Violent Extremism on Local Conflicts and Vice Versa: Differences and Similarities among Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger

Research on violent extremism in Africa argues that jihadi insurgents exploit inter-ethnic cleavages and local grievances in order to recruit and gain support from the region because such political mobilisation leads to an escalation of clashes and violence among communal groups. On the other hand, local militias, especially those aided by governments, incite acts of anti-government terrorists. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data set, we explore at which duration-area level the jihadist and militia attacks affect each other’s atrocities and how the effects vary in three Francophone Sahelian countries—Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. We find that violent acts by militias (or jihadists) tend to be reactive to terrorist attacks (or militia movements) rather than happening concurrently or against one another. More specifically, violent incidents by jihadi insurgents and local militias have an aggravating effect on each other’s violent acts in sub-regional administrative units over a week at the highest rate in Mali and Burkina Faso. Further, results from a cross-country analysis suggest that homegrown factors, including terrorist group rivalry, government responses to terrorism and self-defence militias’ intentions and determination, might affect how the jihadists’ exploitation of the cleavages and the growing challenges posed by ethnic militias to the extremists exacerbate the situation.