通过创新保险机制缓解气候变化相关灾害风险:拉脱维亚案例研究中的系统动力学模型应用

IF 2 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Risks Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI:10.3390/risks12030043
Maksims Feofilovs, Andrea Jonathan Pagano, Emanuele Vannucci, Marina Spiotta, Francesco Romagnoli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过研究与灾害保险机制相关联的复杂系统的反馈回路,探讨系统动力学建模方法如何帮助解决传统保险机制的问题。传统的灾害保险策略主要侧重于为灾后资产恢复提供资金保障,而不是解决灾害的潜在风险。随着与气候相关的灾害威胁的增加,这种限制变得尤为令人担忧,因为它可能导致长期损失支出的增加。为解决这一问题,我们提出了一种新的保险机制,以降低损失成本,同时保障投保资产并吸引新的资产得到保护。利用系统动力学存量和流量模型创建了一个本地案例研究,并通过检查模型结构、敏感性分析和极值测试进行了验证。对拉脱维亚某城市进行的案例研究结果凸显了在创新保险机制内应用有效的灾害风险降低战略对于降低总体灾害成本的重要意义。在对模拟情景结果进行分析的整个过程中看到的逻辑一致性加强了既定模型的可信度。案例研究的结果支持了创新保险机制的动态假设,并显示了建议的创新保险机制内部动态的主要影响因素。本研究的信息可以帮助保险公司、政策规划者和灾害风险管理者做出有利于当地社区和其他利益相关者的决策,降低与气候相关的灾害风险。
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Climate Change-Related Disaster Risk Mitigation through Innovative Insurance Mechanism: A System Dynamics Model Application for a Case Study in Latvia
This study explores how the System Dynamics modeling approach can help deal with the problem of conventional insurance mechanisms by studying the feedback loops governing complex systems connected to the disaster insurance mechanism. Instead of addressing the disaster’s underlying risk, the traditional disaster insurance strategy largely focuses on providing financial security for asset recovery after a disaster. This constraint becomes especially concerning as the threat of climate-related disasters grows since it may result in rising long-term damage expenditures. A new insurance mechanism is suggested as a solution to this problem to lower damage costs while safeguarding insured assets and luring new assets to be protected. A local case study utilizing a System Dynamics stock and flow model is created and validated by examining the model’s structure, sensitivity analysis, and extreme value test. The results of the case study performed on a city in Latvia highlight the significance of effective disaster risk reduction strategies applied within the innovative insurance mechanism in lowering overall disaster costs. The logical coherence seen throughout the analysis of simulated scenario results strengthens the established model’s plausibility. The case study’s findings support the innovative insurance mechanism’s dynamic hypothesis and show the main influencing factors on the dynamics within the proposed innovative insurance mechanism. The information this study can help insurance firms, policy planners, and disaster risk managers make decisions that will benefit local communities and other stakeholders regarding climate-related disaster risk mitigation.
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来源期刊
Risks
Risks Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
22.70%
发文量
205
审稿时长
11 weeks
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