Phase-dependent red fox expansion into the tundra: implications for management

Expansion of boreal species into tundra ecosystems is a consequence of climate change and human exploitation that threatens local species through increased predation, competition, and pathogen transmission. Under these circumstances, efficient control of expanding boreal species may be necessary, but the efficiency of such action depends on understanding the ecological influences of expansion. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is expanding into the tundra across the Arctic. In Scandinavia, red foxes threaten local tundra species and communities including the endangered Arctic fox (V. lagopus). The ecological dynamics in the tundra are influenced by small rodent cycles (classified into different phases based on seasonal abundance fluctuations), which can affect red fox expansion, distribution, and abundance. We used a 17-year (2004–2020) dataset from the tundra in Sweden, consisting of raw snow track data, to test how cyclic prey influenced red fox distribution and abundance, and subsequently red fox control. The winter abundance of red fox was influenced by small rodent phase, with higher abundance during high prey availability (i.e., increased number of prey numbers) with no support for a time lag between red fox and small rodent abundance. This suggests that high prey availability attracts red foxes to the tundra and that higher immigration from the boreal zone can be expected in response to increased prey abundances. There was no relationship between red fox control and small rodent availability, but control was influenced by red fox abundance during the previous year, which highlights an opportunistic control strategy. We recommend an adaptive management strategy where authorities include small rodent dynamics in the planning and execution of red fox control.