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Issue Information - Cover
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22603
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引用次数: 0
JWM beyond the Journal Impact Factor
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22723
Jacqueline L. Frair
<p>In the era of the Impact Agenda, pressure is mounting to demonstrate the value of research beyond its impact on other researchers (Thelwall <span>2021</span>). As a complement to scientific impact factors, so-called alternative metrics or Altmetrics attempt to gauge societal attention to published research articles by tracking digital mentions within news outlets, blogs, Wikipedia entries, policy documents, social media feeds (e.g., X, Reddit, Facebook), and reference managers like Mendeley (Williams <span>2017</span>, Javed Ali <span>2021</span>). Major platforms like Altmetrics or PlumX calculate an integrated attention score that weights the volume of mentions by the importance or authority of their sources (Javed Ali <span>2021</span>). Studies have demonstrated that alternative metrics operate in a different orthogonal dimension than citation-based metrics (Bornmann and Haunschild <span>2018</span>), and if the latter captures research quality the former captures public interest irrespective of quality. Like any metric, attention scores have limitations—among other concerns Altmetrics could be easily manipulated by social media platforms, some topics are inherently more interesting to people than others irrespective of their value to society, geographic and language biases are apparent, sensational claims or topics are likely to receive more attention than serious academic research, and the nature of the attention (positive or negative) is not captured (Patthi et al. <span>2017</span>, Williams <span>2017</span>, Javed Ali <span>2021</span>). The field of alternative metrics is new and rapidly evolving. Most scholars advise that Altmetrics should be considered complementary to traditional impact metrics while maintaining a healthy degree of skepticism (García-Villar <span>2021</span>, Thelwall <span>2021</span>).</p><p>With full access to Altmetrics.com being provided to me by Wiley, I conducted a search on 6 December 2024 for the <i>Journal of Wildlife Management</i> (<i>JWM</i>; no specified date range) to identify the top 10 most highly scored papers and see what characteristics they might share (Table 1). One advantage of Altmetrics is that they can gauge immediate social interest, whereas peer-reviewed citations can take years to materialize. One top 10 paper was published 13 years ago, 3 were published 6-7 years ago, 3 were published 3-4 years ago, and 3 were published in the last 2 years. Only 30% of these articles were published Open Access (Hanley et al. <span>2022</span>, Ramey et al. <span>2022</span>, Wightman et al. <span>2024</span>). Of the 10 lead authors, 40% were female.</p><p>In terms of content, 7 were original research articles, 2 were review articles, and 1 was an Editor's note introducing a special section. Several of the top 10 articles focused on health issues (e.g., lead poisoning, avian influenza) or received press coverage because of the risk of a spillover health issue (e.g., deadly herpes virus in macaques).
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引用次数: 0
An Introduction to R: Data Analysis and Visualization By Mark Gardener, London, United Kingdom: Pelagic Publishing. 2023. pp. 381. $47.00 (paperback). ISBN: 9781784273385
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22713
Emily A. Masterton
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引用次数: 0
Do invasive predators pose a predation risk to roosting shorebirds? Fecal DNA and camera trap analysis
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22694
Louise A. Williams, Samuel Dupré, Michael Stat, Matt W. Hayward, Christophe Tourenq, Andrea S. Griffin

Shorebird populations have experienced dramatic population declines worldwide. Reasons for these declines are varied, but one largely understudied threat at migratory shorebird non-breeding grounds is predation by introduced predators. High-tide roosting shorebirds may be vulnerable to ground predation, as they roost in a spatially clumped and temporally predictable manner in areas easily accessible to ground predators. We measured predation risk by the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) at high-tide roosts within 2 internationally important shorebird estuaries in New South Wales, Australia, during a time when non-breeding shorebird numbers were at their annual peak, using a combination of camera trapping and environmental DNA (eDNA). Foxes were present at all study sites and were seen most frequently at sites encompassing the 2 largest high-tide roosts within the study estuaries, and least frequently nearest the roosts. Metabarcoding identified a broad range of avian taxa in fox scats collected at roosts, including ground-dwelling birds, native waterbirds, and introduced pigeons and doves, but no shorebird species. Bird prevalence in fox scats reached levels that far exceeded those reported in prior studies. Future studies should examine whether red foxes present a non-lethal, rather than lethal, predation threat to high-tide roosting shorebirds when feeding on other co-occurring food sources, potentially inducing energetically costly predator avoidance.

{"title":"Do invasive predators pose a predation risk to roosting shorebirds? Fecal DNA and camera trap analysis","authors":"Louise A. Williams,&nbsp;Samuel Dupré,&nbsp;Michael Stat,&nbsp;Matt W. Hayward,&nbsp;Christophe Tourenq,&nbsp;Andrea S. Griffin","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.22694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22694","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Shorebird populations have experienced dramatic population declines worldwide. Reasons for these declines are varied, but one largely understudied threat at migratory shorebird non-breeding grounds is predation by introduced predators. High-tide roosting shorebirds may be vulnerable to ground predation, as they roost in a spatially clumped and temporally predictable manner in areas easily accessible to ground predators. We measured predation risk by the introduced red fox (<i>Vulpes vulpes</i>) at high-tide roosts within 2 internationally important shorebird estuaries in New South Wales, Australia, during a time when non-breeding shorebird numbers were at their annual peak, using a combination of camera trapping and environmental DNA (eDNA). Foxes were present at all study sites and were seen most frequently at sites encompassing the 2 largest high-tide roosts within the study estuaries, and least frequently nearest the roosts. Metabarcoding identified a broad range of avian taxa in fox scats collected at roosts, including ground-dwelling birds, native waterbirds, and introduced pigeons and doves, but no shorebird species. Bird prevalence in fox scats reached levels that far exceeded those reported in prior studies. Future studies should examine whether red foxes present a non-lethal, rather than lethal, predation threat to high-tide roosting shorebirds when feeding on other co-occurring food sources, potentially inducing energetically costly predator avoidance.</p>","PeriodicalId":17504,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Wildlife Management","volume":"89 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Issue Information - Cover 发行信息 - 封面
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22601
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引用次数: 0
Great Lakes mallard population dynamics
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22702
Benjamin Z. Luukkonen, Scott R. Winterstein, Daniel B. Hayes, Drew N. Fowler, Gregory J. Soulliere, John M. Coluccy, Amy A. Shipley, John Simpson, Brendan Shirkey, Jason M. Winiarski, Benjamin J. O'Neal, Barbara A. Avers, Gerald R. Urquhart, Philip Lavretsky

Breeding mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by >40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.

{"title":"Great Lakes mallard population dynamics","authors":"Benjamin Z. Luukkonen,&nbsp;Scott R. Winterstein,&nbsp;Daniel B. Hayes,&nbsp;Drew N. Fowler,&nbsp;Gregory J. Soulliere,&nbsp;John M. Coluccy,&nbsp;Amy A. Shipley,&nbsp;John Simpson,&nbsp;Brendan Shirkey,&nbsp;Jason M. Winiarski,&nbsp;Benjamin J. O'Neal,&nbsp;Barbara A. Avers,&nbsp;Gerald R. Urquhart,&nbsp;Philip Lavretsky","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.22702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22702","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Breeding mallard (<i>Anas platyrhynchos</i>) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by &gt;40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.</p>","PeriodicalId":17504,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Wildlife Management","volume":"89 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jwmg.22702","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disease and migratory tactic mediate the nutritional benefits of irrigated agriculture to mule deer
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22705
Brittany L. Wagler, Cheyenne Stewart, Zach Turnbull, Jennifer L. Malmberg, Kevin L. Monteith

Agriculture can alter the nutritional landscape for herbivores in ways that can augment nutritional condition, reproduction, and survival. Ecological benefits associated with human modified landscapes, however, potentially alter environmental cues in ways that appear beneficial but ultimately have negative effects on fitness or population growth. We tested the hypothesis that the expected nutritional benefit of agriculture would come with a tradeoff associated with increased transmission of chronic wasting disease using a partially migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in northern Wyoming, USA. Agriculture provided a substantial nutritional buffer to resident deer by augmenting nutritional condition in autumn and enhancing recruitment of offspring—a resident that spent 35% of its summer in agriculture had 1.2 percentage points more body fat in December and was 18 percentage points more likely to recruit offspring to December than a resident that spent 15% of its summer in agriculture. During winter, migrants and residents selected for home ranges closer to agriculture, but only residents selected for home ranges overlapping directly with agriculture. Proximity to agriculture in winter, however, decreased adult survival for migrants and residents (29 percentage points decreased probability of survival for every 1-km closer to agriculture) and increased the probability of having CWD at time of death. The nutritional benefits of agriculture likely increase the viability of a resident tactic, but the benefits may be offset if the nutrition gained from using agriculture does not outweigh the risks associated with disease.

{"title":"Disease and migratory tactic mediate the nutritional benefits of irrigated agriculture to mule deer","authors":"Brittany L. Wagler,&nbsp;Cheyenne Stewart,&nbsp;Zach Turnbull,&nbsp;Jennifer L. Malmberg,&nbsp;Kevin L. Monteith","doi":"10.1002/jwmg.22705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.22705","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Agriculture can alter the nutritional landscape for herbivores in ways that can augment nutritional condition, reproduction, and survival. Ecological benefits associated with human modified landscapes, however, potentially alter environmental cues in ways that appear beneficial but ultimately have negative effects on fitness or population growth. We tested the hypothesis that the expected nutritional benefit of agriculture would come with a tradeoff associated with increased transmission of chronic wasting disease using a partially migratory population of mule deer (<i>Odocoileus hemionus</i>) in northern Wyoming, USA. Agriculture provided a substantial nutritional buffer to resident deer by augmenting nutritional condition in autumn and enhancing recruitment of offspring—a resident that spent 35% of its summer in agriculture had 1.2 percentage points more body fat in December and was 18 percentage points more likely to recruit offspring to December than a resident that spent 15% of its summer in agriculture. During winter, migrants and residents selected for home ranges closer to agriculture, but only residents selected for home ranges overlapping directly with agriculture. Proximity to agriculture in winter, however, decreased adult survival for migrants and residents (29 percentage points decreased probability of survival for every 1-km closer to agriculture) and increased the probability of having CWD at time of death. The nutritional benefits of agriculture likely increase the viability of a resident tactic, but the benefits may be offset if the nutrition gained from using agriculture does not outweigh the risks associated with disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":17504,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Wildlife Management","volume":"89 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Red fox home ranges, activity patterns, and resource selection on an Atlantic barrier island
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22704
Kathleen M. Black, Sarah M. Karpanty, Shannon J. Ritter, Daniel H. Catlin, James D. Fraser

Relatively little is known about red fox (Vulpes vulpes) spatial ecology on barrier islands, where semi-linear habitat distribution and aquatic barriers may affect terrestrial movements. Because red foxes often are a predator of imperiled shorebirds in these ecosystems, and predation is often managed along with other factors such as habitat limitation, this information is needed to inform effective holistic management. The goals of this study were to describe red fox spatial ecology in a barrier island ecosystem and compare these findings to the existing literature on red fox space use in other coastal settings. We used global positioning system (GPS) collar data collected from 2015–2018 from 31 red foxes to estimate sizes of home ranges and core-use areas, describe daily activity patterns, and investigate within-home-range resource selection among red foxes on Fire Island, New York, USA. Twenty-two of 31 red foxes maintained distinct home ranges throughout the monitoring period, while 9 were transient, regularly traveling through the home ranges of other red foxes and among management units across the island. Observed GPS-collared red fox home range sizes (95% time local convex hull [t-LoCoH] isopleths) ranged from 10 ha to 659 ha, averaging 59 ± 7 ha (SE) among resident foxes and 447 ± 46 ha among transient foxes. Core-use areas (50% t-LoCoH isopleths) ranged from <1 ha to 268 ha, averaging 10 ± 1 ha among resident foxes and 67 ± 27 ha among transient foxes. Hourly minimum movement rates varied across the diel cycle and among individuals, averaging 216 m/hour ± 9 m/hour, and were highest 13–22 hours after sunrise. Within-home-range resource selection varied among activity periods. For example, red foxes selected areas closer than expected to vegetation based on availability during the daytime and twilight hours but farther than expected from vegetation at night. We recommend vegetation management in and around shorebird nesting areas to reduce daytime resting sites and hunting cover for red foxes while improving suitability for use by nesting shorebirds. We also suggest coordination of predator management activities across agencies in this situation and in others where predators regularly cross management unit boundaries. Overall, we found that many aspects of red fox space use in the study area, such as smaller average home ranges compared to those in other ecosystems, were similar to that of red foxes in other coastal settings; additional research is needed to determine whether this holds true in other barrier island systems.

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引用次数: 0
Wolf density and predation patterns in the Canadian High Arctic 加拿大北极高地的狼密度和捕食模式
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22671
Morgan L. Anderson, H. Dean Cluff, L. David Mech, Daniel R. MacNulty

The Arctic wolf (Canis lupus arctos) is a predator of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), Arctic hares (Lepus arcticus), and endangered Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) in the Canadian High Arctic. Although Arctic wolves potentially affect the dynamics of muskoxen and Peary caribou populations, knowledge about their abundance, distribution, and predation patterns is limited. Inuit and Inuvialuit communities value these species for sociocultural and subsistence reasons, and community members are concerned about how interactions among these species and their environment may change in a warming, unpredictable Arctic. We conducted a study from 2014–2018 of wolves in the rolling tundra of central Ellesmere Island (Fosheim Peninsula) and eastern Axel Heiberg Island. This area supported relatively high densities of muskoxen and Arctic hares, and previously supported Peary caribou, although caribou were mostly absent in the area during our study. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collars on 10 adult wolves in 6 packs on Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg islands to describe wolf density and predation patterns. Wolves were neither nomadic nor migratory; they remained on territories year-round, with summer densities of 2.5–8.0 adult wolves/1,000 km2 and 3.7–10.4 wolves/1,000 km2 including pups. Based on a ground search of 312 of 868 location clusters over a 340-day period, wolves in a focal study pack killed approximately 0.12 muskoxen/day, equivalent to a predation rate of 5.5–17.0% of the estimated muskox population (older than 10 months old). This predation rate is likely sustainable given that calves and yearlings rather than reproductive adults comprised most documented kills, and that muskox populations can increase at rates up to 20%. The kill rate for this pack also implied a biomass intake deficit of 0.82–1.63 kg/wolf/day that could have been offset by each wolf consuming 115–228 Arctic hares annually. The decline of Peary caribou in the study area precluded any assessment of wolf predation influences on their population, but annual telemetry data confirming the year-round presence of a wolf–ungulate–hare system with relatively high wolf densities suggests that apparent competition could present a challenge to Peary caribou recovery efforts.

北极狼(Canis lupus arctos)是加拿大北极高地的麝牛(Ovibos moschatus),北极野兔(Lepus arcticus)和濒临灭绝的驯鹿(Rangifer tarandus pearyi)的掠食者。尽管北极狼可能影响麝牛和北美驯鹿种群的动态,但对它们的数量、分布和捕食模式的了解有限。因纽特人和Inuvialuit社区价值对社会文化和生存的原因,这些物种和社区成员都关心如何这些物种与环境之间的交互可能会改变在一个变暖,不可预知的北极。2014年至2018年,我们对埃尔斯米尔岛中部(Fosheim半岛)和阿克塞尔海伯格岛东部的滚动苔原上的狼进行了研究。该地区支持相对高密度的麝牛和北极野兔,并且以前支持Peary caribou,尽管在我们的研究期间该地区大多没有驯鹿。研究人员在埃尔斯米尔岛和阿克塞尔海伯格岛的6群10只成年狼身上安装了GPS无线电项圈,以描述狼的密度和捕食模式。狼既不是游牧的,也不是迁徙的;它们全年生活在领地上,夏季密度为2.5-8.0只成年狼/ 1000 km2, 3.7-10.4只狼/ 1000 km2(包括幼狼)。在340天的时间里,根据对868个地点群中的312个地点群的地面搜索,一个重点研究群中的狼每天杀死大约0.12头麝牛,相当于估计的麝牛种群(10个月以上)的5.5-17.0%的捕食率。这种捕食率可能是可持续的,因为记录在案的大多数杀戮是由小牛和一岁的幼崽而不是繁殖的成年动物构成的,而且麝牛的种群数量可以以高达20%的速度增长。这群狼的捕杀率也意味着每只狼每天的生物量摄入不足0.82-1.63公斤,这可以通过每只狼每年吃掉115-228只北极野兔来抵消。研究区域内驯鹿数量的减少使我们无法评估狼捕食对驯鹿数量的影响,但每年的遥测数据证实,狼-有蹄类-野兔系统全年存在,狼的密度相对较高,这表明明显的竞争可能对驯鹿的恢复工作构成挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment 评估在不断变化的环境中捕捞太平洋海象的可持续性
IF 1.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22686
Devin L. Johnson, Joseph M. Eisaguirre, Rebecca L. Taylor, Erik M. Andersen, Joel L. Garlich-Miller

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

收获的可持续性是野生动物管理和保护的主要目标,在不断变化的世界中,在有凝聚力的管理计划中考虑种群动态和收获的环境驱动因素变得越来越重要。这对于受到气候变化严重影响的收获物种尤为重要。太平洋海象(Odobenus rosmarus divergens)是土著社区的重要生存资源,同时由于海冰的减少和北极地区人为足迹的增加,其栖息地正在迅速丧失。我们开发了一个种群模型-logistic管理框架,结合4种潜在的气候和干扰情景(从乐观到悲观,主要基于一般环流模型的海冰预测)来评估各种收获情景,以模拟太平洋海象种群动态到21世纪末,重点关注种群中独立年龄的雌性子集。我们考虑了两种类型的收获策略:1)依赖于状态的收获情景,其中我们计算收获量占人口的百分比,并在重新评估人口时以设定的间隔更新年收获量;2)每年一致的收获情景,其中每年的收获水平在未来保持一致。所有气候和干扰情景都表明,到21世纪末,即使在没有收获的情况下,太平洋海象的丰度也会出现不同程度的下降。然而,我们发现,在所有气候和干扰情景下,考虑到25%的中等风险承受水平,1.23%的独立年龄女性种群(例如,2020年收获1280名独立年龄女性,与当代收获水平相似)的国家依赖年采收量符合我们的可持续性标准。这表明,目前的太平洋海象捕捞率是可持续的,并将继续下去——只要定期对种群进行评估,并使捕捞量适应种群动态的变化。我们的模拟表明,如果人口如预期的那样下降,可持续的年度持续收获也是可能的,但只有在低水平上。在我们评估的4种气候和干扰情景中,有3种情景下,1,280只独立年龄雌性的恒定年采收未能满足我们的可持续性标准,并且与等效的状态依赖采收情景相比,其准灭绝概率更高(1.23%)。我们强调了依赖于状态的管理策略的重要性,并建议我们的建模框架有助于在气候变化的情况下管理收获的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Wildlife Management
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