Optimized ST-Moran’s I Model for Characterizing the Dynamic Evolution of Terminal Airspace Congestion

This study aims to unveil the spatiotemporal evolution of congestion within terminal airspace, offering an in-depth analysis of congestion concerns to effectively utilize airspace resources and devise targeted control strategies, thereby enhancing airspace operation safety and efficiency. Initially, converting segment flow rates into equivalent speeds serves as a quantitative benchmark for operational status. Subsequently, an enhanced version of the ST-Moran’s I index model, specifically tailored to terminal airspace, is developed by incorporating improvements across spatial weight matrices, standard state parameters, and temporal dimensions. Validating this model with actual operational data from Chengdu’s terminal airspace, the research demonstrates significant advancements. Compared to conventional models, the proposed model enhances recognition rates for congestion in spatial and temporal dimensions by 62.5% and 43.61%, respectively. Congestion within terminal airspace predominantly occurs at the intersection of departure-climb and approach-departure segments, exhibiting evident spatiotemporal migration behavior. The proposed model accurately delineates the spatiotemporal characteristics of segment congestion, offering support for tailored congestion management strategies.