Temperature-bounded development of Dirofilaria immitis larvae restricts the geographical distribution and seasonality of its transmission: case study and decision support system for canine heartworm management in Australia

Dirofilaria immitis is the causative agent of canine heartworm disease. We used the established heartworm development unit (HDU) principle to map the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of D. immitis in Australia using historical weather data from 2013–2022. We found weather conditions suitable for EIP completion showed substantial seasonality and geographical variability. Whilst a considerable percentage of the Australian territory showed suitable weather conditions to always support EIP completion (17%), only 2.7% of the 2021 Australian human population lived in this region. Therefore, 97% of the population lived in an area that changed its EIP suitability within the study period. EIP completion is required prior to D. immitis transmission, meaning that infection risk of D. immitis is seasonal and location-dependent, being disrupted each year for most of the human population’s dogs. We developed an online, open access tool allowing us to visualise EIP completion across Australia historically and in near real-time. We aim to support veterinarians to make risk-based recommendations for dirofilariosis prevention by using the tool, available at https://heartworm-mapping.adelaide.edu.au/shiny/.