处理机器学习投资组合的缺失值

IF 10.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103815
Andrew Y. Chen , Jack McCoy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们描述了 159 个横截面回报预测因子的结构和缺失原因,并研究了使用机器学习构建的投资组合的缺失值处理方法。与严格的期望最大化方法相比,使用横截面均值进行简单归因的效果很好。这源于预测数据的三个事实:(1)缺失发生在按时间组织的大区块中;(2)横截面相关性很小;(3)缺失往往发生在按基础数据源组织的区块中。因此,观测数据几乎不能提供有关缺失数据的信息。复杂的估算引入了估计噪声,如果不小心应用机器学习,可能会导致性能不佳。
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Missing values handling for machine learning portfolios

We characterize the structure and origins of missingness for 159 cross-sectional return predictors and study missing value handling for portfolios constructed using machine learning. Simply imputing with cross-sectional means performs well compared to rigorous expectation-maximization methods. This stems from three facts about predictor data: (1) missingness occurs in large blocks organized by time, (2) cross-sectional correlations are small, and (3) missingness tends to occur in blocks organized by the underlying data source. As a result, observed data provide little information about missing data. Sophisticated imputations introduce estimation noise that can lead to underperformance if machine learning is not carefully applied.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
15.80
自引率
4.50%
发文量
192
审稿时长
37 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Financial Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of research in the area of financial economics and the theory of the firm, placing primary emphasis on the highest quality analytical, empirical, and clinical contributions in the following major areas: capital markets, financial institutions, corporate finance, corporate governance, and the economics of organizations.
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