利用非线性自回归模型研究对外贸易对苏丹经济增长的影响

Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman, Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim, Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对外贸易是国家间商品和服务交换的总称,受一系列法律、规则和协议的约束。本研究的目的是评估 2005 年至 2022 年苏丹经济增长、进口和出口之间的联系。研究基于描述、分析和计量经济学方法,使用非线性自回归模型(NARDL)估算了研究变量之间的关系。研究结论表明,在研究期间,出口对经济增长率有短期负面影响,但长期影响是积极的。此外,进口对经济增长率有短期的有利影响,但长期的不利影响。
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Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models to Investigate the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in Sudan
Foreign commerce is the term for the exchange of goods and services between nations, and it is subject to a wide range of laws, rules, and agreements. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the link between Sudan's economic growth, imports, and exports from 2005 to 2022. Based on a descriptive, analytical, and econometrics methodology, the study estimated the relationship between the study variables using a nonlinear autoregressive model (NARDL). The study's conclusions indicate that, during the study period, exports had a short-term negative influence on the rate of growth in the economy but a positive long-term impact. Additionally, imports have a short-term favorable effect on economic growth rates but a long-term negative one.
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