Risk of heart disease and stroke among individuals with prehypertension or blood pressure progression: a national population-based cohort study.

Objective: The purpose of our study was to analyze the association of blood pressure and blood pressure progression with heart disease and stroke among Chinese population.

Method: We included a total of 10 122 adults aged 45 years and above free of heart disease or stroke at baseline from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study cohort. We used Cox proportional hazards models to analyze the relationship between cardiovascular risk and prehypertension in subjects with or without progression to hypertension.

Result: During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 1972 subjects were either diagnosed with heart disease or had a stroke (composite outcome). Compared with individuals with normotension at baseline, the fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 1.25 (1.10-1.42) and 1.52 (1.34-1.74) for composite outcome in individuals with prehypertension and hypertension at baseline, respectively. The subjects who progressed to hypertension had higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes than those who remained at normal blood pressure or prehypertension in a fully adjusted model. The subjects who progressed from prehypertension to hypertension had 1.72 times higher risk [HR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.37-2.16)] of cardiovascular outcomes than those who remained at normal blood pressure or prehypertension in a fully adjusted model.

Conclusion: The cardiovascular risk of subjects with prehypertension is higher than that of subjects with normal blood pressure. After a diagnosis of hypertension, subjects who progressed from normal blood pressure to hypertension had an increased risk of heart disease and stroke.