Longitudinal prognosis of Parkinson’s outcomes using causal connectivity

Despite the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease (PD), there are no clinically-accepted neuroimaging biomarkers to predict the trajectory of motor or cognitive decline or differentiate Parkinson’s disease from atypical progressive parkinsonian diseases. Since abnormal connectivity in the motor circuit and basal ganglia have been previously shown as early markers of neurodegeneration, we hypothesize that patterns of interregional connectivity could be useful to form patient-specific predictive models of disease state and of PD progression. We use fMRI data from subjects with Multiple System Atrophy (MSA), Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP), idiopathic PD, and healthy controls to construct predictive models for motor and cognitive decline and differentiate between the four subgroups. Further, we identify the specific connections most informative for progression and diagnosis. When predicting the one-year progression in the MDS-UPDRS-III^1* and Montreal Cognitive assessment (MoCA), we achieve new state-of-the-art mean absolute error performance. Additionally, the balanced accuracy we achieve in the diagnosis of PD, MSA, PSP, versus healthy controls surpasses that attained in most clinics, underscoring the relevance of the brain connectivity features. Our models reveal the connectivity between deep nuclei, motor regions, and the thalamus as the most important for prediction. Collectively these results demonstrate the potential of fMRI connectivity as a prognostic biomarker for PD and increase our understanding of this disease.