{"title":"2015-2019 年期间印度德里 PM2.5 暴露导致的过早死亡风险和相关经济损失评估","authors":"Amrendra Kumar Singh, Ashutosh Kumar Pathak, Gaurav Saini","doi":"10.1007/s11869-024-01550-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Particulate matter especially PM<sub>2.5</sub> has always been a prime concern for human health. An Integrated Exposure–Response (IER) function and Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach is used in the present study, for Delhi, India, to monitor the association between fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) concentration and premature mortality for the five diseases: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke (STR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung neoplasms (LNC), and lower respiratory infections (LRI) and economic loss occurring due to them. It was found in the study that IHD (64%) has the highest risk, followed by stroke (19%), COPD (10%), LRI (4%), and LNC (3%). Significant economic loss for these diseases during the study period (on average annually) was found to be: IHD [20160.15, 95% CI:16,432.88—24,290.06], STR [6088.12, 95% CI: 4583.80- 7963.50], COPD [3176.32, 95% CI:2246.27—3818.32], LNC [881.13, 95% CI: 696.37 – 1087.61], LRI [1170.48, 95% CI:852.44—1542.76] million USD. Scenario modeling was done as part of this investigation to see if Delhi meeting India’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold (40 µg/m<sup>3</sup>) would lower premature deaths and provide economic benefits. Premature mortality has decreased for the following conditions: LRI (51.81%), LNC (47.76%), COPD (47.48%), STR (22.08%), and IHD (20.53%). Further, premature mortality can be potentially reduced, on average, by 95.66% for LRI, 90% for LNC, 88.75% for COPD, 85.40% for STR, and 62.19% for IHD for the study duration if 2005 World Health Organization (WHO) PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure limit (10 µg/m<sup>3</sup>) were reached. Similarly, economic benefits of 7987.39 [95% CI: 6219.57 – 9812.56] and 22,461.14 [95% CI: 17,585.92 – 27,707.95] million USD could have been reaped by maintaining NAAQS and WHO (2005 guidelines) prescribed limits. The estimated reduction in premature mortality and associated economic benefits due to decreased PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure calls for mitigation measures on an urgent basis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49109,"journal":{"name":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","volume":"17 9","pages":"1867 - 1883"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Premature mortality risk and associated economic loss assessment due to PM2.5 exposure in Delhi, India during 2015–2019\",\"authors\":\"Amrendra Kumar Singh, Ashutosh Kumar Pathak, Gaurav Saini\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11869-024-01550-1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Particulate matter especially PM<sub>2.5</sub> has always been a prime concern for human health. An Integrated Exposure–Response (IER) function and Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach is used in the present study, for Delhi, India, to monitor the association between fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) concentration and premature mortality for the five diseases: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke (STR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung neoplasms (LNC), and lower respiratory infections (LRI) and economic loss occurring due to them. It was found in the study that IHD (64%) has the highest risk, followed by stroke (19%), COPD (10%), LRI (4%), and LNC (3%). Significant economic loss for these diseases during the study period (on average annually) was found to be: IHD [20160.15, 95% CI:16,432.88—24,290.06], STR [6088.12, 95% CI: 4583.80- 7963.50], COPD [3176.32, 95% CI:2246.27—3818.32], LNC [881.13, 95% CI: 696.37 – 1087.61], LRI [1170.48, 95% CI:852.44—1542.76] million USD. Scenario modeling was done as part of this investigation to see if Delhi meeting India’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold (40 µg/m<sup>3</sup>) would lower premature deaths and provide economic benefits. Premature mortality has decreased for the following conditions: LRI (51.81%), LNC (47.76%), COPD (47.48%), STR (22.08%), and IHD (20.53%). Further, premature mortality can be potentially reduced, on average, by 95.66% for LRI, 90% for LNC, 88.75% for COPD, 85.40% for STR, and 62.19% for IHD for the study duration if 2005 World Health Organization (WHO) PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure limit (10 µg/m<sup>3</sup>) were reached. Similarly, economic benefits of 7987.39 [95% CI: 6219.57 – 9812.56] and 22,461.14 [95% CI: 17,585.92 – 27,707.95] million USD could have been reaped by maintaining NAAQS and WHO (2005 guidelines) prescribed limits. The estimated reduction in premature mortality and associated economic benefits due to decreased PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure calls for mitigation measures on an urgent basis.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49109,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health\",\"volume\":\"17 9\",\"pages\":\"1867 - 1883\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-024-01550-1\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-024-01550-1","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Premature mortality risk and associated economic loss assessment due to PM2.5 exposure in Delhi, India during 2015–2019
Particulate matter especially PM2.5 has always been a prime concern for human health. An Integrated Exposure–Response (IER) function and Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach is used in the present study, for Delhi, India, to monitor the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and premature mortality for the five diseases: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke (STR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung neoplasms (LNC), and lower respiratory infections (LRI) and economic loss occurring due to them. It was found in the study that IHD (64%) has the highest risk, followed by stroke (19%), COPD (10%), LRI (4%), and LNC (3%). Significant economic loss for these diseases during the study period (on average annually) was found to be: IHD [20160.15, 95% CI:16,432.88—24,290.06], STR [6088.12, 95% CI: 4583.80- 7963.50], COPD [3176.32, 95% CI:2246.27—3818.32], LNC [881.13, 95% CI: 696.37 – 1087.61], LRI [1170.48, 95% CI:852.44—1542.76] million USD. Scenario modeling was done as part of this investigation to see if Delhi meeting India’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold (40 µg/m3) would lower premature deaths and provide economic benefits. Premature mortality has decreased for the following conditions: LRI (51.81%), LNC (47.76%), COPD (47.48%), STR (22.08%), and IHD (20.53%). Further, premature mortality can be potentially reduced, on average, by 95.66% for LRI, 90% for LNC, 88.75% for COPD, 85.40% for STR, and 62.19% for IHD for the study duration if 2005 World Health Organization (WHO) PM2.5 exposure limit (10 µg/m3) were reached. Similarly, economic benefits of 7987.39 [95% CI: 6219.57 – 9812.56] and 22,461.14 [95% CI: 17,585.92 – 27,707.95] million USD could have been reaped by maintaining NAAQS and WHO (2005 guidelines) prescribed limits. The estimated reduction in premature mortality and associated economic benefits due to decreased PM2.5 exposure calls for mitigation measures on an urgent basis.
期刊介绍：
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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