E.R. Crema , A. Bloxam , C.J. Stevens , M. Vander Linden
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引用次数: 0
摘要
考古数据为研究技术和文化特征的传播提供了可能。然而,目前这一研究议程的大部分内容都需要更正式的定量方法来解决样本量小和年代不确定的问题。本文介绍了一种新颖的贝叶斯框架,用于利用与特定创新存在/不存在相关的放射性碳数据推断扩散曲线的形状。我们开发了两种不同的方法:1)分层模型,该模型能够拟合 s 型扩散曲线,同时考虑到创新本身采样概率的站点间变化;2)非参数模型,该模型能够估算创新在用户定义的时间块中的变化比例。这两种方法的稳健性首先通过模拟数据集进行了测试,然后应用于三个案例研究,第一个案例研究史前日本和英国的农耕传播,第三个案例研究史前英国晚期墓葬习俗的变化周期。
Modelling diffusion of innovation curves using radiocarbon data
Archaeological data provide a potential to investigate the diffusion of technological and cultural traits. However, much of this research agenda currently needs more formal quantitative methods to address small sample sizes and chronological uncertainty. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for inferring the shape of diffusion curves using radiocarbon data associated with the presence/absence of a particular innovation. We developed two distinct approaches: 1) a hierarchical model that enables the fitting of an s-shaped diffusion curve whilst accounting for inter-site variations in the probability of sampling the innovation itself, and 2) a non-parametric model that can estimate the changing proportion of the innovation across user-defined time-blocks. The robustness of the two approaches was first tested against simulated datasets and then applied to investigate three case studies, the first pair on the diffusion of farming in prehistoric Japan and Britain and the third on cycles of changes in the burial practices of later prehistoric Britain.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Archaeological Science is aimed at archaeologists and scientists with particular interests in advancing the development and application of scientific techniques and methodologies to all areas of archaeology. This established monthly journal publishes focus articles, original research papers and major review articles, of wide archaeological significance. The journal provides an international forum for archaeologists and scientists from widely different scientific backgrounds who share a common interest in developing and applying scientific methods to inform major debates through improving the quality and reliability of scientific information derived from archaeological research.