减轻农业生产对进口燃料的依赖:一个岛国易受全球灾难性风险影响的案例研究。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-16 DOI:10.1111/risa.14297
Matt Boyd, Sam Ragnarsson, Simon Terry, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球重大灾难可能会破坏液体燃料贸易。依赖进口石油产品的国家可能难以维持工业化农业。100%进口精炼燃料的岛国尤其容易受到影响。我们的案例研究旨在估算在没有贸易的情况下,养活新西兰人口所需的农业用地面积和生物燃料数量。结果表明,在正常使用情况下(数周),甚至在严格配给的情况下(数月),储存的柴油很快就会耗尽。为了保存燃料,我们发现,在 "气候照常 "情景下,种植小麦(每年只需 540 万升柴油)比种植土豆(12.3 升)或奶制品(38.7 升)养活全国人口更节省燃料。在核冬天情景下,由于农业减产,需要的柴油也相应增加。小麦需要目前谷物种植面积的 24%,而用作所需生物燃料原料的油菜籽作物将再占 1%-7%。投资油菜籽生物柴油或可再生柴油提炼厂可确保供应最低限度的农业液体燃料需求。如果后续分析倾向于将这一方案作为燃料抗灾对策的一部分,并将其作为常规粮食使用的一种权衡手段,则可通过市场机制、政府直接投资或这些措施的组合,鼓励在灾难发生前扩大炼油和油菜籽种植规模。还应分析灾难发生后扩大生物燃料提炼规模的后勤问题。此外,正常情况下生产的生物柴油将有助于该国实现减排目标。其他国家也应进行类似分析。
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Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation's vulnerability to global catastrophic risks.

A major global catastrophe would likely disrupt trade in liquid fuels. Countries dependent on imported oil products might struggle to sustain industrial agriculture. Island nations importing 100% of refined fuels are particularly vulnerable. Our case study aimed to estimate the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population of New Zealand in the absence of trade. Results showed that stored diesel would quickly be exhausted with ordinary use (weeks) and even with strict rationing (months). To preserve fuel, we found that farming wheat (requiring as little as 5.4 million liters [L] of diesel per annum) was more fuel-efficient than potatoes (12.3) or dairy (38.7) to feed the national population under a climate-as-usual scenario. In a nuclear winter scenario, with reduced agricultural yields, proportionately greater diesel is needed. The wheat would require 24% of current grain-cropped land, and the canola crop used as feedstock for the required biofuel would occupy a further 1%-7%. Investment in canola biodiesel or renewable diesel refineries could ensure supply for the bare minimum agricultural liquid fuel needs. Were subsequent analysis to favor this option as part of a fuels resilience response and as a tradeoff for routine food use, expansion in refining and canola cropping before a catastrophe could be encouraged through market mechanisms, direct government investment, or a combination of these. Logistics of biofuel refining scale-up, post-catastrophe, should also be analyzed. Further, biodiesel produced in normal times would help the nation meet its emissions reduction targets. Other countries should conduct similar analyses.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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