Varying population size of the Cape Royds Adélie penguin colony, 1955–2020: a synthesis

Among the longest Antarctic biological time series is that of Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae population size at Cape Royds, 1955 to the present. Demographic trends over the 66 years fall into five periods: 1) decrease then recovery due to control of tourism from McMurdo Station/Scott Base; 2) further increase responding to the removal of > 20 000 trophically competing Antarctic minke whales Balaenoptera bonaerensis from the colony's wintering area; 3) stabilization but not decrease upon the ban of whaling in 1982, and whale recovery, owing to increased winds facilitating McMurdo Sound Polynya presence (easier ocean access during nesting); 4) decrease in 2001–2005 when two mega-icebergs, B15A/C16, opposed the wind effect by increasing sea-ice cover, thus limiting ocean access; and 5) after iceberg departure, minimal recovery due to the increased velocity of the wind-generated Ross Gyre reducing penguin breeding probability. A multivariant model using 1998–2018 data confirmed the roles of gyre speed (negative) and open water (positive) in colony growth. Additional negative influence came from high nest predation by south polar skuas Stercorarius maccormicki, reducing chick production, as well as perhaps increased trophic competition from nearby Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddellii. Clearly, long time series increase our understanding of penguin population dynamics responding to a complexity of factors.