A typology of residents’ travel safety perceptions and geopolitical border hesitancy

Global crises prime travel safety perceptions and foster hesitancy to cross intra- and inter-country borders, significantly shifting travel flows. Tourism's post-crisis recovery is typically driven by domestic travel while international travel returns lag, leading many tourism destination managers to monitor resident travel safety perceptions and willingness to welcome domestic and international visitors. This study uses latent class analysis to model heterogeneity in travel safety perceptions among residents during the most recent global crisis and to profile the characteristics of people with different travel safety perceptions to understand the influence of geopolitical borders. Parameter estimates support a five-cluster typology of Unfettered Travel, Nationwide Travel, Cautioned Travel, Averse To All Travel, and Localized Travel. All clusters feel safest traveling in their community and least safe traveling internationally, similarly for welcoming visitors. Notably, crossing a border, even within one's province and country where boundaries are invisible, causes feelings of safety to decline. The results reveal the significant impact on travel sentiments of geography and borders between communities and provinces where traffic may flow without formal customs requirements. The effect of intra-country borders provides new insight into domestic travel flows.