{"title":"带有气候变化和分布式延迟的病媒传播疾病模型的持续或消失动力学","authors":"Chufen Wu , Jianshe Yu , Dawei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.nonrwa.2024.104120","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper is concerned with the dual influences of climate change and distributed delay on dynamics of a vector-borne disease model. Compared to the previous works, the effect of climate change in a latent infection model is first considered since it increases the viral transmission probability of cross species. To deal with the non-monotonicity and heterogeneity of the model, we use some new ideas to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics. The theoretical analyses suggest that three scenarios will occur as follows (i) If the disease persistence ahead of the climate change, the disease will die out by limiting the propagation speed of susceptible or infected individuals. (ii) The emergence of pulse type epidemic wave is obtained, which means the disease switches rapidly between persistence and disappearance. (iii) If susceptible individuals track the speed of climate change while infected individuals do not, the disease cannot evolve to the endemic disease.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49745,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Analysis-Real World Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Persistence or disappearance dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with climate change and distributed delay\",\"authors\":\"Chufen Wu , Jianshe Yu , Dawei Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.nonrwa.2024.104120\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper is concerned with the dual influences of climate change and distributed delay on dynamics of a vector-borne disease model. Compared to the previous works, the effect of climate change in a latent infection model is first considered since it increases the viral transmission probability of cross species. To deal with the non-monotonicity and heterogeneity of the model, we use some new ideas to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics. The theoretical analyses suggest that three scenarios will occur as follows (i) If the disease persistence ahead of the climate change, the disease will die out by limiting the propagation speed of susceptible or infected individuals. (ii) The emergence of pulse type epidemic wave is obtained, which means the disease switches rapidly between persistence and disappearance. (iii) If susceptible individuals track the speed of climate change while infected individuals do not, the disease cannot evolve to the endemic disease.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49745,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nonlinear Analysis-Real World Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nonlinear Analysis-Real World Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1468121824000609\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nonlinear Analysis-Real World Applications","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1468121824000609","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
Persistence or disappearance dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with climate change and distributed delay
This paper is concerned with the dual influences of climate change and distributed delay on dynamics of a vector-borne disease model. Compared to the previous works, the effect of climate change in a latent infection model is first considered since it increases the viral transmission probability of cross species. To deal with the non-monotonicity and heterogeneity of the model, we use some new ideas to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics. The theoretical analyses suggest that three scenarios will occur as follows (i) If the disease persistence ahead of the climate change, the disease will die out by limiting the propagation speed of susceptible or infected individuals. (ii) The emergence of pulse type epidemic wave is obtained, which means the disease switches rapidly between persistence and disappearance. (iii) If susceptible individuals track the speed of climate change while infected individuals do not, the disease cannot evolve to the endemic disease.
期刊介绍:
Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications welcomes all research articles of the highest quality with special emphasis on applying techniques of nonlinear analysis to model and to treat nonlinear phenomena with which nature confronts us. Coverage of applications includes any branch of science and technology such as solid and fluid mechanics, material science, mathematical biology and chemistry, control theory, and inverse problems.
The aim of Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications is to publish articles which are predominantly devoted to employing methods and techniques from analysis, including partial differential equations, functional analysis, dynamical systems and evolution equations, calculus of variations, and bifurcations theory.