固定物体乘员严重程度结果均值和方差异质性的误差成分混合 Logit

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2024.100330
Rohan Shrestha, Lan Ventura, Narayan Venkataraman, Venkataraman Shankar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种具有均值和方差异质性的误差成分混合对数,以捕捉导致因素对固定物体乘员严重性的异质性影响。本文分析了德克萨斯州拉伯克县一年(2021 年)与固定物体相关的碰撞数据,从碰撞叙述中提取了固定物体的详细信息,并将其分为 11 组。碰撞数据包括在碰撞事件序列中任何一点发生的任何固定物体碰撞(不包括第一个有害事件)。随机参数被确定为乘员参与第一个有害碰撞序列事件的指标,该事件为与固定物体碰撞,可能造成伤害和伤害严重程度的结果。在六个不同的指标变量中,这些随机参数的平均值存在异质性。此外,还发现受伤随机参数的方差与两个不同的指标变量存在异质性。对于严重程度较高的结果,纳入两个误差分量嵌套提高了观测水平上的预测准确性。本研究的结果表明,应进一步探讨固定物体分类类型对乘员严重程度结果的异质性影响。此外,研究结果还强调了误差成分混合 Logit 模型在严重性分析中的适用性。
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An error components mixed logit with heterogeneity in means and variance for fixed object occupant severity outcomes

This paper presents an error components mixed logit with heterogeneity in means and variance to capture the heterogeneous effects of contributing factors on fixed object occupant severity. One year (2021) of crash data on fixed object related crashes in Lubbock County, Texas was analyzed with fixed object details extracted from crash narratives and classified into 11 groupings. Crash data included any fixed object collision occurring at any point in the sequence of crash events (not exclusive to the first harmful event). The random parameters were identified as indicators for occupant involvement in the first harmful crash sequence event, with that event being collision with a fixed object, for possible injury and injury severity outcomes. Heterogeneity in the means of these random parameters was found with respect to six different indicator variables. Additionally, heterogeneity in the variance of the injury random parameter was found with respect to two different indicator variables. Inclusion of two error component nests improved prediction accuracy at the observation level for higher severity outcomes. The findings in this study suggest that fixed object classification types should be explored further in relation to heterogeneous effects on occupant severity outcomes. Furthermore, the findings also highlight the applicability of an error components mixed logit model for severity analysis.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
期刊最新文献
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