Intraguild interactions and abiotic conditions mediate occupancy of mammalian carnivores: co‐occurrence of coyotes–fishers–martens

The widespread eradication of large carnivores and subsequent expansion of top mesopredators has the potential to impact species and community interactions with ecosystem‐wide implications. An example of these trophic dynamics is the widespread establishment of coyotes following extirpation of wolves and mountain lions in eastern North America. Here, we examined occupancy of three carnivores in northern New York considering both environmental/habitat factors and interspecific interactions. We estimated the co‐occurrence of coyotes, fishers, and martens from a landscape‐scale winter camera trap survey repeated annually for three years. Martens occurred independently of both coyotes and fishers, while fishers and coyotes displayed positive intraguild interactions that were constant across the landscape. Both marten and fisher first‐order occupancy were driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors, with both species displaying positive associations with forest cover but antithetical responses to average snow depth. The integral and antithetical role of snow depth in driving the occurrence of martens (positive) and fishers (negative) in the landscape indicates that future climatic warming could reduce the availability of current spatial refuges for martens created by severe winter conditions. Climate‐driven alterations to established competitive interactions and co‐existence patterns between marten and fisher have critical implications for the species survival and conservation. We provide correlational evidence consistent with the potential for positive top‐down effects of dominant mesocarnivores on subordinate species, with fisher occupancy increasing conditional on the presence of coyotes across the landscape. These findings align with the hypothesis that under certain conditions, coyotes may facilitate certain subordinate carnivores. The evidence produced here is consistent with hypotheses on the dynamic nature of trophic niches. We demonstrate the need to consider the interplay between climate, habitat, and interspecific interactions to understand wildlife occupancy patterns and inform wildlife management in a rapidly changing world.