仅开放代码和数据还不够:能源系统模型的设计目标是易懂性

S. Pfenninger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

能源系统模型并不代表自然过程,而是代表复杂的工程系统,因此实际上不可能进行验证。后常态科学认为,在这种情况下,重要的是交流内含的价值和不确定性,而不是确定模型是否 "真实 "或 "正确"。在此,我们通过思考 "模型 "是什么以及如何将其分解为可管理的部分,来探讨开放式能源建模如何实现这一目标。在这些构件上的合作--无论它们主要是代码还是数据--可能会成为能源建模社区的一个更大的重点领域。这种合作还可能包括构件的协调和相互比较,而不是完整模型本身。这样做的目的是提高可理解性,使建模者本身(更容易开发和应用针对具体问题的模型)以及远离建模过程的用户(更容易理解模型中发生的定性情况--而不会给建模者带来记录每个细节的过重负担)的生活更加轻松。
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Open code and data are not enough: understandability as design goal for energy system models
Energy system models do not represent natural processes but are assumption-laden representations of complex engineered systems, making validation practically impossible. Post-normal science argues that in such cases, it is important to communicate embedded values and uncertainties, rather than establishing whether a model is “true” or “correct”. Here, we examine how open energy modelling can achieve this aim by thinking about what “a model” is and how it can be broken up into manageable parts. Collaboration on such building blocks – whether they are primarily code or primarily data – could become a bigger focus area for the energy modelling community. This collaboration may also include harmonisation and intercomparison of building blocks, rather than full models themselves. The aim is understandability, which will make life easier for modellers themselves (by making it easier to develop and apply problem-specific models) as well as for users far away from the modelling process (by making it easier to understand what is qualitatively happening in a model - without putting undue burden on the modellers to document every detail).
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