Risk-based hydrologic design under climate change using stochastic weather and watershed modeling

Water resources planning and management requires the estimation of extreme design events. Anticipated climate change is playing an increasingly prominent role in the planning and design of long-lived infrastructure, as changes to climate forcings are expected to alter the distribution of extremes in ways and to extents that are difficult to predict. One approach is to use climate projections to force hydrologic models, but this raises two challenges. First, global climate models generally focus on much larger scales than are relevant to hydrologic design, and regional climate models that better capture small scale dynamics are too computationally expensive for large ensemble analyses. Second, hydrologic models systematically misrepresent the variance and higher moments of streamflow response to climate, resulting in a mischaracterization of the extreme flows of most interest. To address both issues, we propose a new framework for non-stationary risk-based hydrologic design that combines a stochastic weather generator (SWG) that accurately replicates basin-scale weather and a stochastic watershed model (SWM) that accurately represents the distribution of extreme flows. The joint SWG-SWM framework can generate large ensembles of future hydrologic simulations under varying climate conditions, from which design statistics and their uncertainties can be estimated. The SWG-SWM framework is demonstrated for the Squannacook River in the Northeast United States. Standard approaches to design flows, like the T-year flood, are difficult to interpret under non-stationarity, but the SWG-SWM simulations can readily be adapted to risk and reliability metrics which bare the same interpretation under stationary and non-stationary conditions. As an example, we provide an analysis comparing the use of risk and more traditional T-year design events, and conclude that risk-based metrics have the potential to reduce regret of over- and under-design compared to traditional return-period based analyses.