{"title":"评估纽科姆-本福德定律(NBL)偏差的多重一致性检验:对 Koch 和 Okamura(2020 年)的复制","authors":"Dalson Figueiredo, Lucas Silva","doi":"10.3233/mas-231459","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we critically reevaluate Koch and Okamura’s (2020) conclusions on the conformity of Chinese COVID-19 data with Benford’s Law. Building on Figueiredo et al. (2022), we adopt a framework that combines multiple tests, including Chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Euclidean Distance, Mean Absolute Deviation, Distortion Factor, and Mantissa Distribution. The primary rationale behind employing multiple tests is to enhance the robustness of our inference. The main finding of the study indicates that COVID-19 infections in China do not adhere to the distribution expected under Benford’s Law, nor does it align with the figures observed in the U.S. and Italy. The usefulness of deviations from Benford’s Law in detecting misreported or fraudulent data remains controversial. However, addressing this question requires a more careful statistical analysis than what is presented in the Koch and Okamura (2020) paper. By employing a combination of several tests using fully transparent procedures, we establish a more reliable approach to evaluating conformity to the Newcomb-Benford Law in applied research.","PeriodicalId":35000,"journal":{"name":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","volume":"19 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Multiple conformity tests to assess deviations from the Newcomb-Benford Law (NBL): A replication of Koch and Okamura (2020)\",\"authors\":\"Dalson Figueiredo, Lucas Silva\",\"doi\":\"10.3233/mas-231459\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper, we critically reevaluate Koch and Okamura’s (2020) conclusions on the conformity of Chinese COVID-19 data with Benford’s Law. Building on Figueiredo et al. (2022), we adopt a framework that combines multiple tests, including Chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Euclidean Distance, Mean Absolute Deviation, Distortion Factor, and Mantissa Distribution. The primary rationale behind employing multiple tests is to enhance the robustness of our inference. The main finding of the study indicates that COVID-19 infections in China do not adhere to the distribution expected under Benford’s Law, nor does it align with the figures observed in the U.S. and Italy. The usefulness of deviations from Benford’s Law in detecting misreported or fraudulent data remains controversial. However, addressing this question requires a more careful statistical analysis than what is presented in the Koch and Okamura (2020) paper. By employing a combination of several tests using fully transparent procedures, we establish a more reliable approach to evaluating conformity to the Newcomb-Benford Law in applied research.\",\"PeriodicalId\":35000,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications\",\"volume\":\"19 7\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-231459\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"Mathematics\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Model Assisted Statistics and Applications","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/mas-231459","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
Multiple conformity tests to assess deviations from the Newcomb-Benford Law (NBL): A replication of Koch and Okamura (2020)
In this paper, we critically reevaluate Koch and Okamura’s (2020) conclusions on the conformity of Chinese COVID-19 data with Benford’s Law. Building on Figueiredo et al. (2022), we adopt a framework that combines multiple tests, including Chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Euclidean Distance, Mean Absolute Deviation, Distortion Factor, and Mantissa Distribution. The primary rationale behind employing multiple tests is to enhance the robustness of our inference. The main finding of the study indicates that COVID-19 infections in China do not adhere to the distribution expected under Benford’s Law, nor does it align with the figures observed in the U.S. and Italy. The usefulness of deviations from Benford’s Law in detecting misreported or fraudulent data remains controversial. However, addressing this question requires a more careful statistical analysis than what is presented in the Koch and Okamura (2020) paper. By employing a combination of several tests using fully transparent procedures, we establish a more reliable approach to evaluating conformity to the Newcomb-Benford Law in applied research.
期刊介绍:
Model Assisted Statistics and Applications is a peer reviewed international journal. Model Assisted Statistics means an improvement of inference and analysis by use of correlated information, or an underlying theoretical or design model. This might be the design, adjustment, estimation, or analytical phase of statistical project. This information may be survey generated or coming from an independent source. Original papers in the field of sampling theory, econometrics, time-series, design of experiments, and multivariate analysis will be preferred. Papers of both applied and theoretical topics are acceptable.