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Limitations of the propensity scores approach: A simulation study 倾向分数法的局限性:模拟研究
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-241505
Igor Mandel
Propensity scores (PS) have been studied for many years, mostly in the aspect of confounder matching in the control and treatment groups. This work is devoted to the problem of estimation of the causal impact of the treatment versus control data in observational studies, and it is based on the simulation of thousands of scenarios and the measurement of the causal outcome. The generated treatment effect was added in simulation to the outcome, then it was retrieved using the PS and regression estimations, and the results were compared with the original known in the simulation treatment values. It is shown that only rarely the propensity score can successfully solve the causality problem, and the regressions often outperform the PS estimations. The results support the old philosophical critique of the counterfactual theory of causation from a statistical point of view.
倾向评分(PS)已被研究多年,主要是在对照组和治疗组混杂因素匹配方面。这项工作主要针对观察性研究中治疗数据与对照数据的因果影响估计问题,它基于成千上万种情况的模拟和因果结果的测量。在模拟过程中将生成的治疗效果添加到结果中,然后使用 PS 和回归估计法对其进行检索,并将结果与模拟中已知的原始治疗值进行比较。结果表明,只有在极少数情况下,倾向得分能成功解决因果关系问题,而回归结果往往优于倾向得分估计值。这些结果从统计学角度支持了对因果关系反事实理论的旧哲学批判。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of three-parameter Fréchet distribution for the number of days from drug administration to remission in small sample sizes 小样本中从服药到病情缓解的天数的三参数弗雷谢特分布估计
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231466
T. Ogura, C. Shiraishi
In medical research, it is common to estimate parameters for each group and then evaluate the estimated parameters for each group without comparing the groups. However, researchers frequently want to determine whether the two distributions using the estimated parameters differ significantly between the two groups. For the Weibull distribution, the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (two-sided) was used to examine whether the two distributions were significantly different between the two groups. Based on this, we developed a method to compare the two groups using a three-parameter Fréchet distribution. The number of days from drug administration to remission frequently followed a Fréchet distribution. It is appropriate to use a three-parameter Fréchet distribution with a location parameter because patients typically go into remission after several days of drug administration. We propose a minimum variance linear estimator with a hyperparameter (MVLE-H) method for estimating a three-parameter Fréchet distribution based on the MVLE-H method for estimating a three-parameter Weibull distribution. We verified the effectiveness of the MVLE-H method and the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (two-sided) on the three-parameter Fréchet distribution using Monte Carlo simulations and numerical examples.
在医学研究中,通常是为每组估计参数,然后评估每组的估计参数,而不对各组进行比较。然而,研究人员经常想确定使用估计参数的两个分布在两组之间是否有显著差异。对于 Weibull 分布,我们使用双样本 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验(双侧)来检验两组之间的两种分布是否存在显著差异。在此基础上,我们开发了一种使用三参数弗雷谢特分布对两组进行比较的方法。从用药到病情缓解的天数经常遵循弗雷谢特分布。使用带有位置参数的三参数弗雷谢特分布是合适的,因为患者通常会在服药数天后进入缓解期。我们在估计三参数韦布尔分布的 MVLE-H 方法的基础上,提出了带超参数的最小方差线性估计器(MVLE-H)方法,用于估计三参数弗雷谢特分布。我们利用蒙特卡罗模拟和数值示例验证了 MVLE-H 方法和双样本 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验(双侧)对三参数 Fréchet 分布的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Parametric analysis and model selection for economic evaluation of survival data 用于生存数据经济评估的参数分析和模型选择
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-241506
Szilárd Nemes
Health technology assessments of interventions impacting survival often require extrapolating current data to gain a better understanding of the interventions’ long-term benefits. Both a comprehensive examination of the trial data up to the maximum follow-up period and the fitting of parametric models are required for extrapolation. It is standard practice to visually compare the parametric curves to the Kaplan-Meier survival estimate (or comparison of hazard estimates) and to assess the parametric models using likelihood-based information criteria. In place of these two steps, this work demonstrates how to minimize the squared distance of parametric estimators to the Kaplan-Meier estimate. This is in line with the selection of the model using Mean Squared Error, with the modification that the unknown true survival is replaced by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We would assure the internal validity of the extrapolated model and its appropriate representation of the data by adhering to this procedure. We use both simulation and real-world data with a scenario where no model that properly fits the data could be found to illustrate how this process can aid in model selection.
对影响生存的干预措施进行健康技术评估时,往往需要推断当前数据,以更好地了解干预措施的长期益处。在进行外推时,需要对最长随访期之前的试验数据进行全面检查,并拟合参数模型。标准做法是将参数曲线与 Kaplan-Meier 生存估计值(或危险估计值比较)进行直观比较,并使用基于似然法的信息标准对参数模型进行评估。这项工作展示了如何最小化参数估计与 Kaplan-Meier 估计的平方距离,以取代这两个步骤。这与使用平均平方误差选择模型的方法一致,只是用 Kaplan-Meier 估计值代替了未知的真实存活率。通过坚持这一程序,我们可以确保推断模型的内部有效性及其对数据的恰当表述。我们使用模拟数据和真实世界数据来说明这一过程如何有助于模型选择。
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引用次数: 0
Development of out-of-sample forecast formulae for the FIGARCH model 开发 FIGARCH 模型的样本外预测公式
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-241510
Debopam Rakshit, R. Paul
Volatility is a matter of concern for time series modeling. It provides valuable insights into the fluctuation and stability of concerning variables over time. Volatility patterns in historical data can provide valuable information for predicting future behaviour. Nonlinear time series models such as the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) and the generalized version of the ARCH model, i.e. generalized ARCH (GARCH) models are popularly used for capturing the volatility of a time series. The realization of any time series may have significant statistical dependencies on its distant counterpart. This phenomenon is known as the long memory process. Long memory structure can also be present in volatility. Fractionally integrated volatility models such as the fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) model can be used to capture the long memory in volatility. In this paper, we derived the out-of-sample forecast formulae along with the forecast error variances for the AR (1) -FIGARCH (1, d, 1) model by recursive use of conditional expectations and conditional variances. For empirical illustration, the modal spot prices of onion for Delhi, Lasalgaon and Bengaluru markets, India and S&P 500 index (close) data are used.
波动性是时间序列建模所关注的一个问题。它提供了有关变量随时间变化的波动性和稳定性的宝贵见解。历史数据中的波动模式可以为预测未来行为提供有价值的信息。自回归条件异方差(ARCH)和 ARCH 模型的广义版本,即广义 ARCH(GARCH)模型等非线性时间序列模型常用于捕捉时间序列的波动性。任何时间序列的实现都可能与其远期的对应序列存在显著的统计依赖关系。这种现象被称为长记忆过程。波动率中也可能存在长记忆结构。分数积分波动率模型,如分数积分 GARCH(FIGARCH)模型,可以用来捕捉波动率中的长记忆。本文通过条件期望和条件方差的递归使用,推导出了 AR (1) -FIGARCH (1, d, 1) 模型的样本外预测公式和预测误差方差。为了进行实证说明,使用了印度德里、拉萨尔冈和班加罗尔市场的洋葱模态现货价格以及标准普尔 500 指数(收盘价)数据。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of kidney infection data using correlated compound poisson frailty models 利用相关复合泊松虚弱模型分析肾脏感染数据
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231452
David D. Hanagal
Shared frailty models are used despite their limitations. To overcome their disadvantages correlated frailty models may be used. In this paper, we introduce the correlated compound Poisson frailty models with two different baseline distributions namely, the generalized log logistic and the generalized Weibull. We introduce the Bayesian estimation procedure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to estimate the parameters involved in these models. We present a simulation study to compare the true values of the parameters with the estimated values. Also we apply these models to a real life bivariate survival data set of McGilchrist and Aisbett (1991) related to the kidney infection data and a better model is suggested for the data.
共享虚弱模型尽管有其局限性,但仍被使用。为了克服其缺点,可以使用相关虚弱模型。本文介绍了具有两种不同基线分布(即广义 log logistic 和广义 Weibull)的相关复合泊松虚弱模型。我们介绍了使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)技术的贝叶斯估计程序,以估计这些模型所涉及的参数。我们进行了一项模拟研究,以比较参数的真实值和估计值。此外,我们还将这些模型应用于 McGilchrist 和 Aisbett(1991 年)与肾脏感染数据相关的真实二元生存数据集,并为该数据提出了一个更好的模型。
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引用次数: 0
INAR(1) process with Poisson-transmuted record type exponential innovations 具有泊松传递记录类型指数创新的 INAR(1) 过程
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231458
M. Irshad, Muhammed Ahammed, R. Maya, Christophe Chesneau
In their article, Erbayram and Akdoğan (Ricerche di Matematica, 2023) introduced the Poisson-transmuted record type exponential distribution by combining the Poisson and transmuted record type exponential distributions. This article presents a novel approach to modeling time series data using integer-valued time series with binomial thinning framework and the Poisson-transmuted record type exponential distribution as the innovation distribution. This model demonstrates remarkable proficiency in accurately representing over-dispersed integer-valued time series. Under this configuration, which is a flexible and highly dependable choice, the model accurately captures the underlying patterns present in the time series data. A comprehensive analysis of the statistical characteristics of the process is given. The conditional maximum likelihood and conditional least squares methods are employed to estimate the process parameters. The performance of the estimates is meticulously evaluated through extensive simulation studies. Finally, the proposed model is validated using real-time series data and compared against existing models to demonstrate its practical effectiveness.
Erbayram 和 Akdoğan (Ricerche di Matematica, 2023)在他们的文章中介绍了将泊松分布和嬗变记录型指数分布相结合的泊松嬗变记录型指数分布。本文提出了一种新颖的时间序列数据建模方法,使用二项稀疏框架的整数值时间序列和泊松变换记录型指数分布作为创新分布。该模型在准确表示过度分散的整数值时间序列方面表现出卓越的能力。在这种灵活且高度可靠的配置下,模型准确地捕捉到了时间序列数据中存在的基本模式。本文对这一过程的统计特征进行了全面分析。采用条件最大似然法和条件最小二乘法来估计过程参数。通过大量的模拟研究,对估计值的性能进行了细致的评估。最后,利用实时序列数据对所提出的模型进行了验证,并与现有模型进行了比较,以证明其实际有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Parametric modeling of receiver operating characteristics curves 接收器工作特性曲线的参数建模
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231475
P.M. Shankar
Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves play a pivotal role in the analyses of data collected in applications involving machine vision, machine learning and clinical diagnostics. The importance of ROC curves lies in the fact that all decision-making strategies rely on the interpretations of the curves and features extracted from them. Such analyses become simple and straightforward if it is possible to have a statistical fit for the empirical ROC curve. A methodology is developed and demonstrated to obtain a parametric fit for the ROC curves using multiple tools in statistics such as chi square testing, bootstrapping (parametric and non-parametric) and t-testing. Relying on three data sets and an ensemble of density functions used in modeling sensor and econometric data, statistical modeling of the ROC curves (best fit) is accomplished. While the reported research relied on simulated data sets, the approaches implemented and demonstrated in this work can easily be adapted to data collected in clinical as well as non-clinical settings.
在涉及机器视觉、机器学习和临床诊断的应用中,接收方操作特征曲线(ROC)在分析所收集数据的过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用。ROC 曲线的重要性在于,所有决策策略都依赖于对曲线和从中提取的特征的解释。如果能对经验 ROC 曲线进行统计拟合,那么这些分析就会变得简单明了。本文开发并演示了一种方法,利用多种统计工具,如卡方检验、自引导(参数和非参数)和 t 检验,获得 ROC 曲线的参数拟合。依靠三个数据集和用于传感器和计量经济学数据建模的密度函数集合,完成了 ROC 曲线的统计建模(最佳拟合)。虽然报告中的研究依赖于模拟数据集,但这项工作中实施和演示的方法很容易适用于在临床和非临床环境中收集的数据。
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引用次数: 0
An asymmetric V-shaped distribution 不对称的 V 形分布
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231441
Tai Vo-Van, Thao Nguyen-Trang, Ha Che-Ngoc
This paper proposes a new asymmetric V-shaped distribution for fitting continuous data. In this study, some statistical properties, such as the mean, the median, the variance, the survival, and the hazard function of the new distribution are investigated. Furthermore, we also presented how to generate the proposed asymmetric V-shaped distribution based on two random variables that have uniform distributions. Three examples are presented to illustrate the advantages of the asymmetric V-shaped distribution for some simulated and real-life data sets.
本文提出了一种新的非对称 V 型分布,用于拟合连续数据。在这项研究中,我们研究了新分布的一些统计特性,如均值、中位数、方差、生存率和危险函数。此外,我们还介绍了如何基于两个均匀分布的随机变量生成所提出的非对称 V 型分布。我们还列举了三个例子来说明非对称 V 型分布在一些模拟数据集和现实数据集中的优势。
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引用次数: 0
New results and regression model for the exponentiated odd log-logistic family with applications 指数奇数对数逻辑族的新结果和回归模型及其应用
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231450
Gabriela M. Rodrigues, Roberto Vila, E. M. Ortega, G. Cordeiro, Victor Serra
We obtain new mathematical properties of the exponentiated odd log-logistic family of distributions, and of its special case named the exponentiated odd log-logistic Weibull, and its log transformed. A new location and scale regression model is constructed, and some simulations are carried out to verify the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators, and of the modified deviance-based residuals. The methodology is applied to the Japanese-Brazilian emigration data.
我们获得了指数化奇数对数-对数分布族的新数学特性,以及其特殊情况(名为指数化奇数对数-对数 Weibull)及其对数变换的新数学特性。构建了一个新的位置和规模回归模型,并进行了一些模拟,以验证最大似然估计值和修正的基于偏差的残差的行为。该方法适用于日本-巴西移民数据。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of missing data and ICC on full information maximum-likelihood estimation in multilevel SEMs 缺失数据和 ICC 对多层次 SEM 中全信息最大似然估计的影响
Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.3233/mas-231444
Chunling Niu
A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to investigate the performance of full information maximum-likelihood (FIML) estimator in multilevel structural equation modeling (SEM) with missing data and different intra-class correlations (ICCs) coefficients. The study simulated the influence of two independent variables (missing data patterns, and ICC coefficients) in multilevel SEM on five outcome measures (model rejection rates, parameter estimate bias, standard error bias, coverage, and power). Results indicated that FIML parameter estimates were generally robust for data missing on outcomes and/or higher-level predictor variables under the data completely at random (MCAR) and for data missing at random (MAR). However, FIML estimation yielded substantially lower parameter and standard error bias when data was not missing on higher-level variables, and in high rather than in low ICC conditions (0.50 vs 0.20). Future research should extend to further examination of the impacts of data distribution, complexity of the between-level model, and missingness on the between-level variables on FIML estimation performance.
我们进行了一项蒙特卡罗模拟研究,以调查全信息最大似然(FIML)估计器在具有缺失数据和不同类内相关(ICC)系数的多层次结构方程建模(SEM)中的性能。研究模拟了多层次 SEM 中两个自变量(缺失数据模式和 ICC 系数)对五个结果指标(模型拒绝率、参数估计偏差、标准误差偏差、覆盖率和功率)的影响。结果表明,在数据完全随机(MCAR)和数据随机缺失(MAR)的情况下,FIML 参数估计对于结果和/或更高层次预测变量缺失的数据通常是稳健的。然而,当高层次变量的数据没有缺失时,以及在高而不是低 ICC 条件下(0.50 对 0.20),FIML 估计的参数和标准误差偏差要低得多。未来的研究应进一步探讨数据分布、水平间模型的复杂性以及水平间变量的缺失对 FIML 估计性能的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Model Assisted Statistics and Applications
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