The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long-Run Impact on Fertility

This paper examines the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on Taiwan's fertility by exploiting a natural experiment in which public-sector workers are unaffected due to job security. The financial crisis reduces the number of children by increasing the first-birth interval, which leads to a lower probability of first birth. Women aged 33–38 experienced the largest decline in the probability of first birth, increasing the risks of permanent childlessness. Low-income households and those with less-educated spouses have a greater increase in the first-birth interval. The number of children and the probability of first birth remain significantly lower 9 years after 2008.