预测保护条件下草莓果实受霉菌和根瘤菌感染的情况

Xiangming Xu, S. Agyare, Eithne Browne, T. Passey
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摘要

由粘孢菌和根瘤菌引起的保护地栽培草莓采后变质现象最近在英国越来越普遍,但在制定和实施针对粘孢菌和根瘤菌的综合管理方面却缺乏足够的知识。我们进行了实地采样,以获得实地数据,从而建立模型来预测草莓果实上的霉菌和根瘤菌感染情况。在表面消毒和培养之前,将果实暴露在自然产生的接种体中 24 小时,以估计粘孢子菌和根瘤菌的感染程度。观察到的发病率数据,连同气候条件和接种体诱捕器计数,首先在(1)广义线性模型(GLM)和(2)分类树的框架内进行分析。田间取样证实了之前的研究,即成熟/熟透的草莓果实更容易受到霉菌和根瘤菌的感染。气候变异,尤其是蒸汽压力不足,似乎对霉菌和根瘤菌的腐烂发生率影响更大。不过,无论是作为 GLM 分析中的连续变量(发病率),还是作为分类树分析中的分类风险,粘菌和根瘤菌的可预测性都太低,根据本研究中使用的预测因子,其实用价值不高。因此,目前的管理可能必须基于采收前按计划施用替代产品,以减少感染和当地病原体接种体,并采取管理措施,最大限度地减少种植中的病原体接种体。未来的研究需要开发快速而准确的原位定量病原体接种体的方法,以改进疾病风险预测。
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Predicting infection of strawberry fruit by Mucor and Rhizopus spp. under protected conditions
Postharvest spoilage of strawberry grown under protection, caused by Mucor spp. and Rhizopus spp., has recently become more common in the UK, but there is insufficient knowledge to develop and implement integrated management against Mucor and Rhizopus. Field sampling was conducted to obtain field data for developing models to predict the infection of Mucor and Rhizopus on strawberry fruit. Fruits were exposed to naturally occurring inoculum for a period of 24 hours before surface-sterilisation and incubation to estimate the level of infection by Mucor and Rhizopus. The observed incidence data, together with climatic conditions and inoculum trap counts, were used analysed firstly within the framework of (1) generalised linear model (GLM), and (2) classification tree. Field sampling confirmed previous research that ripening/ripe strawberry fruits are more susceptible to infection by Mucor and Rhizopus. Climatic variability, particularly in vapour pressure deficit, appears to be more important in influencing the rotting incidence of both Mucor and Rhizopus. However, the predictability of both Mucor and Rhizopus, whether as a continuous variable (incidence) in the GLM analysis or as a categorical risk in classification tree analysis, is too low to be of practical value based on those predictors used in the present study. Thus, current management may have to be based on scheduled preharvest application of alternative products to reduce infection and local pathogen inoculum as well as adopting management practice to minimise pathogen inoculum in the planting. Future research is needed to develop methods for rapid yet accurate in situ quantification of pathogen inoculum to improve disease risk predictions.
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