基于多特征的流行病特征智能预测模型

IF 8.4 2区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI:10.1049/cit2.12294
Xiaoying Wang, Chunmei Li, Yilei Wang, Lin Yin, Qilin Zhou, Rui Zheng, Qingwu Wu, Yuqi Zhou, Min Dai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

Omicron 的流行特征(如大规模传播)与 COVID-19 的初始变种有显著不同。大规模传播产生的数据对于预测流行特征的趋势非常重要。然而,目前的预测模型由于没有与 Omicron 传播的实际情况紧密结合,其结果并不准确。因此,这些不准确的结果对制造业和服务业的发展进程(如口罩生产和旅游业的恢复)产生了负面影响。作者从调查和预测两个方面对疫情特征进行了研究。首先,利用百度指数收集了大量数据,并对疫情人物进行了问卷调查。其次,建立 β-SEIDR 模型,将人群分为易感人群、暴露人群、感染人群、死亡人群和 β-Recovered 人群,对 COVID-19 的流行特征进行智能预测。模拟结果表明,该模型能够准确预测疫情特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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An intelligent prediction model of epidemic characters based on multi-feature

The epidemic characters of Omicron (e.g. large-scale transmission) are significantly different from the initial variants of COVID-19. The data generated by large-scale transmission is important to predict the trend of epidemic characters. However, the results of current prediction models are inaccurate since they are not closely combined with the actual situation of Omicron transmission. In consequence, these inaccurate results have negative impacts on the process of the manufacturing and the service industry, for example, the production of masks and the recovery of the tourism industry. The authors have studied the epidemic characters in two ways, that is, investigation and prediction. First, a large amount of data is collected by utilising the Baidu index and conduct questionnaire survey concerning epidemic characters. Second, the β-SEIDR model is established, where the population is classified as Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Dead and β-Recovered persons, to intelligently predict the epidemic characters of COVID-19. Note that β-Recovered persons denote that the Recovered persons may become Susceptible persons with probability β. The simulation results show that the model can accurately predict the epidemic characters.

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来源期刊
CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology
CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
3.90%
发文量
134
审稿时长
35 weeks
期刊介绍: CAAI Transactions on Intelligence Technology is a leading venue for original research on the theoretical and experimental aspects of artificial intelligence technology. We are a fully open access journal co-published by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) and the Chinese Association for Artificial Intelligence (CAAI) providing research which is openly accessible to read and share worldwide.
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