Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta (YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes (LUCC), impacting ecosystem services (ES) and ecological security patterns (ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development (NDS), economic development (EDS), and ecological protection scenarios (EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate: (1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies. (2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage, water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES. (3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km², 645.03 km², and 64.43 km², respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.