大国政治在长达十年之久的叙利亚内战中的影响

Kasım İleri
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摘要

本研究分析了美国和俄罗斯作为两个大国参与叙利亚内战对中东国际关系以及华盛顿和莫斯科之间关系的影响。本研究采用结构现实主义方法,认为美国和俄罗斯的行动主要是出于对地缘政治现状的担忧。因此,他们更倾向于将大国博弈控制在叙利亚。作为主要发现,本研究提出,美俄在叙利亚的对决延长了叙利亚的破坏时间,动摇了美国在该地区的联盟,同时允许伊朗作为美国在该地区的主要对手在俄罗斯的掩护下将其影响力深入该地区。此外,与更广泛的升级性安全政策相反,俄罗斯和美国采取了遏制方针,避免使用冷战工具直接对抗。
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The Implications of Great Power Politics in the Decade Long Syrian Civil War
This research analyzes the implications US and Russian involvement has had as two great powers in the Syrian civil war for international relations in the Middle East as well as for the relations between Washington and Moscow. Using a structural realist approach, this study suggests that the actions of both the US and Russia have mostly been defined by geopolitical status-quo concerns. As a result, they have preferred that their great power play be contained in Syria. As key findings, this study puts forward that the US-Russia showdown in Syria has prolonged the destruction and shaken US alliances in the region while allowing Iran as a key US adversary in the region to extend its influence deep into the region under cover of Russia. Furthermore, contrary to their broader escalatory security policies, Russia and the US have adopted containment approaches and avoided direct confrontation using Cold War tools.
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