波兰租赁住房的规模及其主要决定因素

Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, Viktorija Cohen
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摘要

我们对快速增长的租赁市场的研究与当前的兴奋浪潮完全吻合。在这项研究中,我们试图回答一个基本问题:波兰的租赁市场到底有多大?出乎我们意料的是,这个关键问题的答案仍然是个谜,缺乏披露其真实规模的连续性研究。在本文中,我们不畏艰难,接受挑战,开发出一种能给出明确答案的方法。我们利用欧盟统计局的统计数据,建立了一个估算租赁市场规模的方法框架。我们承认欧盟统计局的数据具有一定的局限性,但在我们提出的方法中,这些数据是实现我们目标的宝贵资源。在我们的方法中,我们确定了 2007 年至 2021 年波兰租赁市场的规模。为了验证我们的研究结果,我们深入研究了租赁市场规模与家庭之间的复杂关系。通过线性回归,我们试图揭示影响整体住房市场以及令人费解的租赁市场规模的主要决定因素。事实证明,所提出的方法是成功的,回答了研究问题。然而,必须强调的是,所提出的结果只是估计值,给人的印象是租房群体的规模难以捉摸,而不是精确的测量值。此外,拟议方法的灵活性也很有前景,可以在不同的地理环境中开展类似的研究。
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The Size of the Rental Housing Segment in Poland and its Main Determinants
Our research into the fast-growing segment of the rental market fits perfectly with the current wave of excitement. In this research, we attempt to answer a fundamental question: how large is the rental segment in Poland? To our surprise, the answer to this key question remains wrapped in mystery, with an absence of continuous studies disclosing its true size. Undaunted, in this paper we took up the challenge to develop a method that would give us a clear answer. Using Eurostat statistics, we develop a methodological framework for estimating the size of the rental segment. We acknowledge that Eurostat data possesses certain limitations, yet serves as a valuable resource for fulfilling our goal under the proposed methodology. In our approach, we determine the size of Polish rental segment between 2007 and 2021. To validate our findings, we dived into the complex relationship between the size of the rental segment and households. Applying linear regression, we sought to unravel the main determinants influencing not only the overall housing market but also the dimensions of the puzzling rental segment. The proposed method proves to be successful and answers the research question. However, it is important to emphasize that the presented results are estimates that give an impression of the elusive size of the rental housing segment and not exact measurements. Moreover, the flexibility of the proposed methodology is promising and allows similar studies to be conducted in different geographical contexts.
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