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Impact of the Apartment’s Window Exposure to World Directions on Transaction Price 公寓窗口对世界走向的影响对交易价格的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0034
Marcin Bas
The purpose of the study is to econometrically estimate the effect of the direction of window exposure on the unit price of housing. The research hypothesis according to which the exposure of windows to the east increases the unit price of apartments is verified, and is based on observations of the market for units in buildings with exposure to two sides of the world (east and west). Research into the various characteristics that affect real estate prices is being conducted around the world. The main focus is on the impact of features which we are certain about, i.e. date, area, number of rooms, etc., i.e. non-contentious and reasonably easy to identify as to the condition of the feature. The results of the study are to capture certain regularities that will give a glimpse of how the exposure of the apartment’s windows to a given direction of the world affected prices. Through the implementation of the survey, it can be determined whether a particular side of the world is better perceived by buyers. The study was conducted on data 2015-2023 in one of Poland’s largest cities - Szczecin, where the exposure of the windows of the apartments was to the east or west.
本研究的目的是用计量经济学方法估算窗户朝向对住房单价的影响。研究假设认为,窗户朝东会提高公寓的单价,这一假设得到了验证,其依据是对朝向世界两边(东边和西边)的建筑物单元市场的观察。世界各地都在对影响房地产价格的各种特征进行研究。研究的重点是那些我们可以确定的特征的影响,如日期、面积、房间数量等,即无争议的、比较容易确定的特征状况。研究结果旨在捕捉某些规律性的东西,从中可以窥见公寓窗户的朝向对房价的影响。通过实施调查,可以确定世界的某一面是否更容易被买家感知。这项研究是针对波兰最大的城市之一--什切青的 2015-2023 年数据进行的,这些城市的公寓窗户朝东或朝西。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Anchoring Bias on the Estimation of Asking and Transaction Prices in the Housing Market 锚定偏差对估算住房市场要价和成交价的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0031
Joanna Węgrzyn, Julita Kuta
This paper investigates the anchoring bias in the real estate market, focusing on the impact of uninformative random values on price estimations. Through a randomized controlled trial, the study examines whether selective accessibility contributes to the anchoring effect and to what extent the bias is transmitted from estimated asking prices to transaction prices on the primary housing market. The study was conducted in 2023 among Krakow University of Economics students on the example of the Krakow housing market in Poland. A multiple regression model indicates that randomly assigned numbers serve as cues affecting price estimations, with potential differences of up to 10.5% of the asking price offered by a developer. Additionally, gender and decision-making competencies influence estimation patterns, suggesting varying attitudes towards price-setting strategies that can be implemented by developers. These findings contribute to understanding the complexities of decision-making in real estate markets and highlight avenues for further research.
本文研究了房地产市场中的锚定偏差,重点关注非信息性随机值对价格估算的影响。通过随机对照试验,该研究探讨了选择性可及性是否会导致锚定效应,以及该偏差在多大程度上会从估算的要价传导至一手房市场的成交价。该研究于 2023 年在克拉科夫经济大学的学生中进行,以波兰克拉科夫住房市场为例。多元回归模型表明,随机分配的数字是影响价格估算的线索,其潜在差异可达开发商报价的 10.5%。此外,性别和决策能力也会影响估价模式,这表明开发商对定价策略的态度各不相同。这些发现有助于理解房地产市场决策的复杂性,并强调了进一步研究的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Management and Valuation in Real Estate Cyclea Decade of Experience 房地产周期中的管理和估值a 十年经验
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0023
Radoslaw Wisniewski, Dawid Wiśniewski
The issues of “real estate management” (REM) and “real estate valuation” (REV) are very important from the perspective of the economic development of any country. This is because they refer to one of the most important factors of production, which is real estate. The article assumes that REV is all the processes that allow for valuation, while REM is all the processes that allow for the management and administration of real estate. Both of these processes were referred to the “real estate market cycle” (REMC) and the “real estate lifecycle” (REL). The article analyzed 365 articles published in the Journal of Real Estate Management and Valuation (REMV) (eISSN: 2300-5289). The article is a review paper and has been prepared as part of a summary of scientific research carried out between 2013 and 2022.
从任何国家的经济发展角度来看,"房地产管理"(REM)和 "房地产估价"(REV)问题都非常重要。这是因为它们涉及到最重要的生产要素之一,即房地产。本文假定 REV 是指进行估价的所有过程,而 REM 是指进行房地产管理和行政的所有过程。这两个过程被称为 "房地产市场周期"(REMC)和 "房地产生命周期"(REL)。文章分析了《房地产管理与估价期刊》(REMV)(eISSN:2300-5289)上发表的 365 篇文章。文章是一篇综述性论文,是对 2013 年至 2022 年期间开展的科学研究进行总结的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Capitalization Rate and Real Estate Risk Factors: An Analysis of the Relationships for the Residential Market in the City of Rome (Italy) 资本化率与房地产风险因素:罗马市(意大利)住宅市场的关系分析
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0028
B. Manganelli, D. Anelli, F. Tajani, P. Morano
The assessment of income-producing properties - considered as the bulk of the existing assets - has rapidly increased. An efficient assessment of the market value of this kind of properties requires an adequate involvement of the main risk factors of the local real estate market for the determination of the capitalization rate for the income approach application. The aim of the work is to identify the most significant local real estate risk factors related to the market, the tenant and the context on the residential capitalization rate. The development of a regressive methodological approach applied to the residential sector of the city of Rome (Italy) is proposed. The obtained results show the susceptibility of the analyzed capitalization rate to the variation of the local real estate risk factors, in particular the per capita income and the variation of the rental values, by also considering the influences of the exogenous shocks and the expectation of the investors. The practical implications of the work consist in the possibility for evaluators to assess the likely changes in the capitalization rate in different residential contexts if variations occur in the most influential local risk factors identified by the proposed model.
对被视为现有资产主体的创收型房地产的评估迅速增加。要有效评估这类房产的市场价值,就必须充分考虑当地房地产市场的主要风险因素,以确定收益法应用的资本化率。这项工作的目的是确定与市场、租户和住宅资本化率相关的最重要的本地房地产风险因素。提出了一种适用于罗马市(意大利)住宅部门的回归方法。分析结果表明,分析的资本化率易受当地房地产风险因素变化的影响,特别是人均收入和租金价值的变化,同时也考虑了外生冲击和投资者预期的影响。这项工作的实际意义在于,如果拟议模型确定的最有影响力的当地风险因素发生变化,评估人员可以评估不同住宅区资本化率可能发生的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Econometric Modelling of Average Housing Prices in Local Markets and the Price Anchoring Effect 当地市场平均房价的计量经济学模型和价格锚定效应
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0029
M. Doszyń, S. Kokot
This paper employs the econometric models of relationships over time to evaluate the change in the unit prices of apartments on the local secondary markets in Warsaw and Szczecin, depending on various socioeconomic factors. Indicators reflecting the influence of socioeconomic aspects in these cities and the lagged values of housing prices, acting as so-called anchors in this model, were used as the independent variables. The results obtained from this analysis indicate that it is the lagged prices of housing that have the strongest influence on the formation of price levels in the market. The study confirms the presence of the so-called price anchoring effect, which can be understood as the tendency of market participants to accept prices at levels that can be justified not only by socio-economic factors, but also by the price levels established in their minds. The main purpose of the research presented here is to show that there is no close relationship between quoted housing prices and their objective factors. The quality of models reflecting these relationships clearly improves when lagged housing prices are introduced as the explanatory variables, which may confirm the price anchoring effect derived from behavioral economics, meaning that the heuristics of anchoring and adjustment can be applied to the analysis of the behavior of a collective of individuals - many market participants.
本文采用计量经济学的时间关系模型来评估华沙和什切青当地二级市场上公寓单价的变化,这种变化取决于各种社会经济因素。反映这两个城市社会经济影响的指标和房价的滞后值被用作自变量,在该模型中充当所谓的锚。分析结果表明,滞后房价对市场价格水平的形成影响最大。这项研究证实了所谓的价格锚定效应的存在,这种效应可以理解为市场参与者倾向于接受价格水平,而这种价格水平不仅能被社会经济因素证明是合理的,还能被他们心目中既定的价格水平证明是合理的。本文介绍的研究的主要目的是表明,住房报价与其客观因素之间没有密切关系。当引入滞后房价作为解释变量时,反映这些关系的模型质量明显提高,这可能证实了从行为经济学中得出的价格锚定效应,即锚定和调整的启发式方法可应用于分析个人集体--许多市场参与者--的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Hedonic Model to Determine Residential Land Valuation in Suburban Areas: The Case of Hue City, Vietnam 应用河东模型确定郊区住宅用地价值:越南顺化市案例
Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0016
Thanh Huu Ngoc Le, Ngu Huu Nguyen
The paper aims to promote a model for determining residential land prices within a suburb of Hue city, Vietnam to improve the efficiency of land price determination and management. The study conducted surveys of 27 variables of 200 residential land plots in order to run the hedonic model using SPSS 26.0 software. The result developed a model that explained 78% of the change in land prices by incorporating five factors: area of land, width of road attached to the land plot, distance to hospital, ability to generate cash flow and planning information. Meanwhile, the writers also produced a map of residential land prices in the 2022 suburban areas of Hue city, Vietnam. This is a helpful tool in land market consulting and land valuation procedures.
本文旨在推广一种确定越南顺化市郊区住宅地价的模型,以提高地价确定和管理的效率。研究对 200 块住宅用地的 27 个变量进行了调查,以便使用 SPSS 26.0 软件运行享乐主义模型。结果建立了一个模型,通过纳入土地面积、地块附属道路宽度、与医院的距离、产生现金流的能力和规划信息这五个因素,解释了 78% 的地价变化。同时,作者还绘制了越南顺化市 2022 年郊区住宅地价地图。这对土地市场咨询和土地估价程序很有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Inequalities in Transition to Homeownership in Household Life Cycle 家庭生命周期中向拥有住房过渡的不平等现象
Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0017
A. Matel
The housing situation changes with the household formation cycle. Age, marital status and having children are key to explaining the tenure status of households. However, the question of what factors differentiate owners and tenants if they are at the same stage of household formation arises. Using the logit model method, the determinants of tenure status of Polish households in the same life cycle stages were compared. The study used EU-SILC data for 2018. It showed that both the determinants of housing choices and the strength of their impact differ. At the household formation stage, income and the size of the city are important determinants. At this stage, housing choice is limited due to the availability of the rental market and the need for young people, who migrate to larger cities, to become independent. At the stabilization stage, the source of inequality was the gender of the household head, education, health and marital status. It has been observed that entering into an informal relationship by divorced persons does not equalize their chances of homeownership.
住房情况随着家庭组建周期的变化而变化。年龄、婚姻状况和有无子女是解释家庭保有权状况的关键。然而,如果业主和租户处于家庭形成的同一阶段,又是什么因素将他们区分开来呢?通过使用 logit 模型方法,对处于相同生命周期阶段的波兰家庭保有权状况的决定因素进行了比较。研究使用了2018年欧盟-SILC数据。研究结果表明,住房选择的决定因素及其影响强度都有所不同。在家庭形成阶段,收入和城市规模是重要的决定因素。在这一阶段,由于租赁市场的可用性以及迁移到大城市的年轻人需要独立,住房选择受到限制。在稳定阶段,不平等的根源在于户主的性别、教育、健康和婚姻状况。据观察,离婚者建立非正式关系并不能使他们拥有住房的机会均等。
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引用次数: 0
Transforming Megacities: Value and Impacts of Mixed-Use Developments with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making 改造特大城市:采用多重标准决策的混合用途开发项目的价值和影响
Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0020
Alfonso Valero
This research article explores the valuation of mixed-use developments and their impact on urban planning and city regeneration. The study introduces a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodology to analyze complex buildings developed in Shanghai from 2009 to 2019. Two MCDM appraisals are offered in different developments using three groups of key indicators that served as benchmarks for other Chinese clusters and global megacities. The article addresses two primary research questions: how mixed-use assets can be assessed using MCDM, and what the key performance indicators and factors contributing to the success of mixed-use developments are. The findings highlight the importance of connectivity, previous real estate experience, ESG strategies, international branding, architectural design, financial metrics, and adaptability of the real estate industry in evaluating mixed-use assets. The study provides insight to stakeholders involved in real estate development, including urban planners, developers, and investors, enabling them to make informed decisions and improve sustainable practices. The research also highlights the importance of considering ESG principles, community benefits, and long-term strategies when assessing mixed-use developments to drive social change and contribute to urban regeneration.
本研究文章探讨了综合体开发项目的估值及其对城市规划和城市更新的影响。研究引入了多标准决策(MCDM)方法,对 2009 年至 2019 年期间在上海开发的综合体建筑进行分析。研究采用三组关键指标对不同的开发项目进行了两次 MCDM 评估,这些指标是中国其他城市群和全球特大城市的基准。文章探讨了两个主要研究问题:如何使用 MCDM 评估综合体资产,以及有助于综合体开发成功的关键绩效指标和因素是什么。研究结果强调了连通性、以往的房地产经验、环境、社会和治理战略、国际品牌、建筑设计、财务指标以及房地产行业的适应性在评估多功能资产中的重要性。这项研究为城市规划者、开发商和投资者等参与房地产开发的利益相关者提供了深入的见解,使他们能够做出明智的决策并改进可持续发展实践。研究还强调了在评估多功能开发项目时考虑环境、社会和治理原则、社区利益和长期战略的重要性,以推动社会变革,促进城市复兴。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Public Interest in Limited-Use Areas and Compensation from Airports in Poland: A Google Trends Analysis 探索波兰有限使用区域的公众利益和机场补偿:谷歌趋势分析
Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0025
M. Bełej
This article evaluates online social behavior regarding the establishment of limited-use areas (LUAs) around the airports in Warsaw and Gdansk. The study relied mainly on an analysis of Google Trends statistics, in particular the dynamics of keyword searches. The article suggests that assessments of online behavior can provide a deeper understanding of social behavior. The study involved an OLS regression analysis and a causal impact analysis of the intervention based on a Bayesian structural time-series model. This article analyses different phases of an information society's activity, from the introduction of LUAs around airports to the deadline for submitting compensation claims. The results indicate that the number of searches for the keyword "compensation" increased significantly after the introduction of LUAs and that RSV decreased after the end of the compensation process, which confirms that the intervention significantly influenced the analyzed time series.
本文评估了有关在华沙和格但斯克机场周围设立限制使用区 (LUAs) 的网络社交行为。研究主要依赖于对谷歌趋势统计数据的分析,特别是关键词搜索的动态分析。文章认为,对在线行为的评估可以更深入地了解社会行为。该研究包括 OLS 回归分析和基于贝叶斯结构时间序列模型的干预因果影响分析。这篇文章分析了信息社会活动的不同阶段,从在机场周围引入本地用户协议到提交赔偿要求的截止日期。结果表明,在引入 LUAs 后,关键词 "赔偿 "的搜索次数显著增加,而在赔偿程序结束后,RSV 有所下降,这证实了干预措施对所分析的时间序列产生了显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Price Model for Transit-Oriented Developments in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 马来西亚吉隆坡公交导向型开发项目的价格模型
Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0022
Abdulazeez Adam Muhammad, B. Burhan, Edie Ezwan Mohd Safian
The idea of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) was to foster urban development around railway networks and has been strategically built and applied since the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Previous studies reported positive, negative, or irrelevant impact of TOD on prices of surrounding real estate. The study aims to evaluate the impact of TOD on property prices in Kuala Lumpur. It utilizes secondary data obtained from the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), Malaysia, after data cleaning, Nine Thousand Five Hundred and Forty-Nine (9549) Housing Transactions between the periods 2009 and 2018 were used. The research design was quantitative, and the Hedonic Price Model (log-log model) was used for data analysis. The model revealed a multiple correlation coefficient (R) of 0.891 and an adjusted R2 value of 0.794, indicating that 79.4% of the house price variation is explained by the model. The F value of 996.921, which is statistically significant, indicates that the predictors significantly combine to predict the price of TOD areas in Kuala Lumpur. The coefficient for LnTrainsta is 0.056, indicating that there was a positive relationship between residential house prices and TOD in Kuala Lumpur; this explains that house prices increase by 5.6% for every 100 meter closer to the rail transit station.
公交导向开发(TOD)的理念是促进铁路网周边的城市发展,自 19 世纪末 20 世纪初以来,该理念已得到战略性的建设和应用。以往的研究报告称,TOD 对周边房地产价格产生了积极、消极或无关的影响。本研究旨在评估 TOD 对吉隆坡房地产价格的影响。本研究利用从马来西亚国家房地产信息中心(NAPIC)获得的二手数据,经过数据清理后,使用了 2009 年至 2018 年期间的九千五百四十九(9549)宗住房交易。研究设计为定量分析,数据分析采用了对数价格模型(Hedonic Price Model)。模型显示,多重相关系数(R)为 0.891,调整后的 R2 值为 0.794,表明 79.4% 的房价变化可以用该模型解释。F 值为 996.921,在统计学上具有显著意义,表明这些预测因素在预测吉隆坡 TOD 地区的房价方面具有显著的联合作用。LnTrainsta 的系数为 0.056,表明吉隆坡的住宅房价与 TOD 之间存在正相关关系;这说明,每靠近轨道交通站点 100 米,房价就会上涨 5.6%。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Real Estate Management and Valuation
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