Spatial Heterogeneity of the Respiratory Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke PM2.5 in California

Wildfire smoke fine particles (PM_2.5) are a growing public health threat as wildfire events become more common and intense under climate change, especially in the Western United States. Studies assessing the association between wildfire PM_2.5 exposure and health typically summarize the effects over the study area. However, health responses to wildfire PM_2.5 may vary spatially. We evaluated spatially-varying respiratory acute care utilization risks associated with short-term exposure to wildfire PM_2.5 and explored community characteristics possibly driving spatial heterogeneity. Using ensemble-modeled daily wildfire PM_2.5, we defined a wildfire smoke day to have wildfire-specific PM_2.5 concentration ≥15 μg/m³. We included daily respiratory emergency department visits and unplanned hospitalizations in 1,396 California ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) and 15 census-derived community characteristics. Employing a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression, we observed increased odds of respiratory acute care utilization on wildfire smoke days at the state level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.07). Across air basins, ORs ranged from 0.88 to 1.57, with the highest effect estimate in San Diego. A within-community matching design and spatial Bayesian hierarchical model also revealed spatial heterogeneity in ZCTA-level rate differences. For example, communities with a higher percentage of Black or Pacific Islander residents had stronger wildfire PM_2.5-outcome relationships, while more air conditioning and tree canopy attenuated associations. We found an important heterogeneity in wildfire smoke-related health impacts across air basins, counties, and ZCTAs, and we identified characteristics of vulnerable communities, providing evidence to guide policy development and resource allocation.