全球地球空间模拟的准确性:太阳风监测器位置和太阳风驱动的影响

IF 3.7 2区 地球科学 Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI:10.1029/2023sw003747
Q. Al Shidi, T. I. Pulkkinen, D. Welling, G. Toth
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引用次数: 0

摘要

一些空间天气模型,如本研究中使用的空间天气建模框架(SWMF),利用从第一个拉格朗日点(L1)传播到弓形冲击鼻(BSN)的太阳风来预报地磁暴。SWMF 是一个高度耦合的空间天气模型框架,包括磁层和电离层等地球空间环境的多个方面。太阳风的传播测量被用作 SWMF 的边界条件。太阳风传播方法是基于相前法线(PFN)计算的时间平移,这会导致一些不确定性。例如,传播的太阳风可能在这个时移过程中发生了演变。我们使用由 SWMF Geospace 配置运行的 2010 年至 2019 年间 123 次地磁风暴的数据集来分析太阳风传播和太阳风驱动对地磁指数的影响。我们研究了SYM-H、跨极帽电势(CPCP)以及极光电喷指数AL和AU的误差概率分布。通过研究误差中值(MdE)、标准偏差和标准化回归系数,我们发现误差取决于传播参数。结果表明,模拟 SYM-H 的精度取决于航天器与日地线的距离。我们还量化了 SYM-H 误差的标准偏差与 PFN 和太阳风压的关系。这些统计数据让我们深入了解传播方法如何影响模拟的最终结果,即地磁指数。
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Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving
Some space weather models, such as the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) used in this study, use solar wind propagated from the first Lagrange point (L1) to the bow shock nose (BSN) to forecast geomagnetic storms. The SWMF is a highly coupled framework of space weather models that include multiple facets of the Geospace environment, such as the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The propagated solar wind measurements are used as a boundary condition for SWMF. The solar wind propagation method is a timeshift based on the calculated phase front normal (PFN) which leads to some uncertainties. For example, the propagated solar wind could have evolved during this timeshift. We use a data set of 123 geomagnetic storms between 2010 and 2019 run by the SWMF Geospace configuration to analyze the impact solar wind propagation and solar wind driving has on the geomagnetic indices. We look at the probability distributions of errors in SYM-H, cross polar cap potential (CPCP), and auroral electrojet indices AL and AU. Through studying the median errors (MdE), standard deviations and standardized regression coefficients, we find that the errors depend on the propagation parameters. Among the results, we show that the accuracy of the simulated SYM-H depends on the spacecraft distance from the Sun-Earth line. We also quantify the dependence of the standard deviation in SYM-H errors on the PFN and solar wind pressure. These statistics provide an insight into how the propagation method affects the final product of the simulation, which are the geomagnetic indices.
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