在美国,涉及黑人受害者的凶杀案不太可能被排除嫌疑

IF 4.6 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Criminology Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI:10.1111/1745-9125.12362
Gian Maria Campedelli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

受害者的种族能否解释凶杀案破案可能性的差异?解决这一问题的尝试可以追溯到 20 世纪 70 年代。然而,尽管这一问题在理论和政策上都具有相关性,但我们却缺乏对这一关键问题的全面而明确的实证答案。在此,笔者通过调查美国凶杀案破案率的种族差异,利用两个涵盖 1991-2020 年的数据来源:谋杀问责项目数据集(N = 522278)和国家事件报告系统数据集(N = 98677),从因果关系上关注这一问题。我主要通过精确匹配来分析这些数据源,以实现完美的协变量平衡,然后分离出种族对破案概率的影响。为了进行比较,我还使用了不匹配的回归调整,以获得补充估计值。我证明,根据不同的抽样和估计方法,涉及黑人受害者的凶杀案的破案概率要低 3.4% 到 4.8%。此外,我还通过实证研究表明,这种种族效应对男性的影响略高,而且随着时间的推移,种族差异有适度但显著的增加。这些发现为美国司法中影响黑人个人的歧视提供了大量证据,呼吁采取结构性措施来减少这种鸿沟。
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Homicides involving Black victims are less likely to be cleared in the United States

Does a victim's race explain variation in the likelihood of homicide clearance? Attempts to address this issue date back to the 1970s. Yet, despite its theoretical and policy relevance, we lack a comprehensive and clear empirical answer to this critical question. Here, I causally focus on this problem by investigating racial disparity in homicide clearance in the United States, exploiting two sources covering the 1991–2020 period: the Murder Accountability Project data set (N = 522,278) and the National Incident-Based Reporting System data set (N = 98,677). I primarily analyze these sources by employing exact matching to achieve perfect covariate balance and subsequently isolate the effect of race on the probability of clearance. For comparative purposes, I also use regression adjustment without matching obtaining complementary estimates. I demonstrate that the likelihood of clearance is 3.4 to 4.8 percent lower for homicides involving Black victims, depending on the sampling and estimation approach. In addition, I empirically show that this race effect is slightly higher for males and that racial disparity has moderately but significantly increased over time. These findings contribute to the extensive amount of evidence on discrimination affecting Black individuals in the administration of justice in the United States, calling for structural efforts to reduce this divide.

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来源期刊
Criminology
Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: Criminology is devoted to crime and deviant behavior. Disciplines covered in Criminology include: - sociology - psychology - design - systems analysis - decision theory Major emphasis is placed on empirical research and scientific methodology. Criminology"s content also includes articles which review the literature or deal with theoretical issues stated in the literature as well as suggestions for the types of investigation which might be carried out in the future.
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