Assessing carbon emission reductions and removals in Vavuniya District, Sri Lanka: REDD+ project contributions to sustainability

Carbon revenues from the REDD+ projects are important to reduce deforestation and increase carbon sinks in developing countries. Such revenues are not possible without assessing the baseline emissions, the forest reference emission level (FREL), and the effectiveness of the REDD+ activities. This study aimed to assess the carbon emission reductions from reducing deforestation, carbon removals from enhancing forest carbon stocks, and carbon revenues in the Vavuniya district, Sri Lanka by assessing baseline emissions and FREL (2001 – 2020) in dry monsoon forest using the Google Earth Engine and the phenology-based threshold classification. The Vavuniya district is one of the war-affected dry zone districts showing a significant loss in forest cover. This study considered the carbon pools aboveground, belowground biomass, and litter to calculate forest carbon stocks since a significant change can be observed in these pools due to forest loss. The estimation shows that the annual depletion of carbon stocks was 45,083.6 MgC between 2001 and 2020, which accounts for the total carbon emissions of 165,306.6 MgCO₂. FREL established for the period of the Paris Agreement was at 155,187.9 MgCO₂ yr⁻¹. Around 94,331.0 MgCO₂ of annual carbon emissions could be reduced if REDD+ actions are implemented between 2020 and 2030. While annual carbon removals from the open forest could be 7731.5 MgCO₂. Based on the carbon price selected at the voluntary carbon market and the European Union emission trading system, total emission reductions and removals can be equivalent to carbon revenues ranging from approximately USD 7.3 million to USD 87.5 million. These revenues are important for the Sri Lankan government to promote conservation efforts for the remaining forests to better conserve biodiversity. The estimation suggests high carbon revenues, which can attract successful implementation of the projects through appropriate policy interventions and sectoral collaboration, which can then contribute to long-term economic development and climate change mitigation.