气候变化是国际关系的新因素

I. A. Makarov, A. Shuranova
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摘要

本文探讨了气候变化和全球绿色转型对国际关系不断升级的影响,尤其是在 2015 年《巴黎协定》之后。虽然气候变化后果直接导致的有形风险令人担忧,但与全球绿色转型相关的转型风险的上升对社会、政治制度和经济构成了重大威胁。巴黎协定》中概述的当前减排目标被认为不足以应对日益加剧的有形风险,这凸显了加强各国气候安全的必要性。过渡风险与全球政治的支离破碎密切相关,而全球政治的支离破碎是由各国不同的气候雄心和对去碳化方法的分歧所驱动的。化石燃料的丰富程度、国家在能源地缘政治中的地位、社会经济发展水平、绿色转型机会的利用以及对国际气候协议的参与程度等因素都会导致断层线的出现。在此背景下,俄罗斯面临着众多风险,这迫使该国在这一关键领域与非西方国家结盟的同时,必须阐明并倡导其独特的去碳化愿景。
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Climate Change as a New Factor of International Relations
This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.
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