新开发阶段房价对生育意愿的影响研究

Xiaotian Yan, Chen Hu
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摘要

近年来,为适应经济社会发展,不断调整生育政策,居民生育意愿的提高并没有达到理想的水平。究其原因,住房是生活的必需品。房价作为生活成本和养育子女的成本,对当前居民的生育意愿有着非常重要的影响。根据相关文献可知,房价对生育意愿的影响多从挤出效应和财富效应两个方面进行分析。因此,本研究依托近年来的家庭微观数据,研究房价对城乡居民生育意愿的影响机制。结果表明,房价对城乡居民的生育意愿具有挤出效应,即房价越高,居民的生育意愿越低,其他变量对生育意愿也有影响,如性别、家庭年收入等。房价对生育意愿也有财富效应,即房价越高,居民的生育意愿越高。但财富效应小于挤出效应,所以总体而言,在新的发展阶段,中国房价越高,居民的生育意愿越低。
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Study on the influence of housing price on fertility intention in the new development stage
In recent years, in order to adapt to the economic and social development and constantly adjust the fertility policy, the improvement of residents' fertility willingness has not reached the ideal level. The reason is that housing is necessary for life. The housing price, as the cost of living and the cost of raising children, has a very significant impact on the current residents' willingness to have children. According to the relevant literature, it can be seen that the influence of housing price on fertility intention is mostly analyzed from two aspects: crowding out effect and wealth effect. Therefore, this study relies on the micro-data of families in recent years to study the influence mechanism of housing prices on the fertility willingness of urban and rural residents. The results show that the housing price has a crowding out effect on the fertility willingness of urban and rural residents, that is, the higher the housing price, the lower the residents' fertility willingness, and other variables also have an impact on the fertility intention, such as gender, annual family income, etc. The housing price also has a wealth effect on the fertility willingness, that is, the higher the housing price, the higher the residents' willingness to reproduce. However, the wealth effect is less than the crowding out effect, so in general, in the new stage of development, the higher the housing price in China, the lower the residents' willingness to have children.
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