从债务陷阱到经济繁荣:外债对印尼经济增长影响的索洛模型分析

Safiullah Junejo, Issa Hamadou, Adila Haidari
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摘要

印度尼西亚与许多发展中国家一样,一直在努力解决外债问题。本研究采用索洛增长模型方法研究印度尼西亚外债与经济增长之间的关系。研究使用的是 1970 年至 2022 年的时间序列数据。研究将国内生产总值(GDP)作为因变量,将偿债、外债、出口、进口、资本形成总额和人口增长作为自变量。采用 ARDL 方法对数据进行分析,以确定自变量和因变量之间是否存在统计意义上的显著关系。研究结果表明,外债、还本付息、出口、进口和资本形成总额与国内生产总值之间存在显著的正相关关系,表明外债的增加有助于国家的经济增长。这表明,政府可以利用对外借款来增加投资、出口和进口,并最终推动国内生产总值的增长。这些结果对于寻求促进印尼经济增长战略的政策制定者具有重要意义。通过重点采取刺激外国投资、增加出口和进口以及提高资本形成总额的措施,政策制定者可以帮助印尼摆脱债务陷阱,实现经济繁荣。利用索洛增长模型方法,本研究还为其他发展中国家研究外债与经济增长之间的关系提供了一个框架。
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From Debt Trap to Economic Prosperity: Solow Model Analysis of the Impact of External Debt on Indonesia's Growth
Indonesia, like many developing countries, has been grappling with the issue of external debt. This study uses the Solow Growth Model approach to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth in Indonesia. The study utilizes time-series data from 1970 to 2022. It includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, while Debt Service, External Debt, Exports, Imports, Gross Capital Formation, and Population Growth are the independent variables. The ARDL method is used to analyse the data to determine whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The findings of this study reveal that External Debt, Debt Service, Exports, Imports, and Gross Capital Formation have a significant positive relationship with GDP, indicating that increased external debt can contribute to economic growth in the country. This suggests that the government can use external borrowing to increase investments, exports, and imports and ultimately drive GDP growth. These results have important implications for policymakers looking for strategies to promote economic growth in Indonesia. By focusing on measures that stimulate foreign investment, increase exports and imports, and enhance gross capital formation, policymakers can help the country move from a debt trap to economic prosperity. Using the Solow Growth Model approach, this study also provides a framework for other developing countries to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth.
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