比较中美两国与 CPTPP 的替代安排

Chunding Li, Xin Lin, John Whalley
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在中国正式申请加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)后,美国重新加入该贸易协定的意愿明显增强。本文建立了一个包含 29 个国家的一般均衡数值模型,并纳入了内部货币和贸易成本的概念。目的是模拟和比较中国和美国加入 CPTPP 的影响。比较结果表明,与美国相比,中国加入 CPTPP 将在贸易、国内生产总值和制造业就业方面为记忆国带来更大的利益。此外,中国的加入也会对大多数非成员国的国内生产总值和制造业就业产生积极影响。此外,我们的模拟结果表明,从福利角度考虑,美国在 CPTPP 成员国和全球范围内更受青睐。
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Comparing alternative China and the US arrangements with CPTPP
Following China's formal application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the US' intention to rejoin the trade agreement has obviously strengthened. This article develops a numerical general equilibrium model encompassing 29 countries, incorporating the concept of inside money and trade costs. The aim is to simulate and compare the impacts of China and the US participating in the CPTPP. Comparison results indicate that China entering the CPTPP would yield greater benefits for remember countries in terms of trade, GDP and manufacturing employment compared to the US. Moreover, China's participation can also positively impact GDP and manufacturing employment in most non‐member countries. Additionally, our simulation results unveil that the US would be more favoured among CPTPP members and globally concerning welfare considerations.
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