关于 COVID-19 的老年人年龄组和慢性健康问题的行列效应模型

G. Altun, S. Aktaş
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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用对数线性模型对中国和纽约市的 COVID-19 数据进行统计分析,有助于识别 65 岁以上老人和慢性病患者等高危人群。根据中国 COVID-19 数据集的行效应模型结果,我们得出结论:当年龄组增加一个单位时,慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)患者患 COVID-19 疾病的风险比高血压患者高约 8 倍,比冠心病患者高约 9.37 倍,比糖尿病和脑血管疾病患者高约 13.37 倍,比其他疾病患者高约 10.16 倍。根据纽约市 COVID-19 数据集的列效应模型结果,我们得出结论,当年龄组增加一个单位时,有慢性健康问题的患者死于 COVID-19 疾病的风险比没有慢性健康问题的患者高约 2 倍。我们相信,本研究的实证结果将指导政策制定者为这些弱势群体提供 COVID-19 疾病的治疗。
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Row and Column Effects Modelling of Elderly Age Groups and Chronic Health Problem on COVID-19
Statistical analysis of COVID-19 data from China and NYC, using log-linear models, helps identifying high-risk groups like those aged over 65 and individuals with chronic health issues. According to the results of row effects model applied to the COVID-19 data set of China, we conclude that when the age group increases by one unit, the risk of getting COVID-19 disease is approximately 8 times higher for the patients having Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) than patients having hypertension, 9.37 times higher than patients with coronary heart disease, 13.37 times higher than patients having diabetes and cerebrovascular diseases and 10.16 times higher than patients having other diseases. According to the results of column effects model applied to the COVID-19 data set of NYC, we conclude that when the age group increases by one unit, the risk of death from the COVID-19 disease is approximately 2 times higher for the patients having choric health problem than the patients not having a chronic health problem. We believe that the empirical findings of the presented study will guide the policymakers to make provision for these disadvantageous groups for COVID-19 disease
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