A Hybrid Forecasting Model for Self-Similar Traffic in LEO Mega-Constellation Networks

Mega-constellation network traffic forecasting provides key information for routing and resource allocation, which is of great significance to the performance of satellite networks. However, due to the self-similarity and long-range dependence (LRD) of mega-constellation network traffic, traditional linear/non-linear forecasting models cannot achieve sufficient forecasting accuracy. In order to resolve this problem, a mega-constellation network traffic forecasting model based on EMD (empirical mode decomposition)-ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and IGWO (improved grey wolf optimizer) optimized BPNN (back-propagation neural network) is proposed in this paper, which makes comprehensive utilization of linear model ARIMA, non-linear model BPNN and optimization algorithm IGWO. With the enhancement of the global optimization capability of a BPNN, the proposed hybrid model can fully realize the potential of mining linear and non-linear laws of mega-constellation network traffic, hence improving the forecasting accuracy. This paper utilizes an ON/OFF model to generate historical self-similar traffic to forecast. RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), R-square and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) are adopted as evaluation indexes for the forecasting effect. Comprehensive experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms traditional constellation network traffic forecasting schemes, with several improvements in forecasting accuracy and efficiency.