使用熵-维科方法评估土耳其城市的洪水风险

Onur Derse, Elifcan Göçmen Polat
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摘要

近年来,由于快速城市化和气候变化,人们对过去十年城市洪水风险评估的兴趣与日俱增。最佳的洪水风险评估不仅可以通过传统的风险建模方法,还可以通过整体和综合框架来实现。本文侧重于详细的洪水评估,为政策制定者和城市规划者提供风险数据库,以决定土耳其的洪水易发地区。在此背景下,基于熵的 VIKOR(VonseKriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje)被用来评估一系列洪水风险标准,包括洪水次数、人口密度和建筑物数量、防洪保护区,这些都属于风险维度的概念,包括 "危害、暴露和脆弱性 "等方面。计算结果表明,桑尼乌尔法省、奥尔杜省、宗古尔达克省和凡省的城市风险值分别较高,各城市的排名呈现不同的 q 值。由于从洪水管理的角度对洪水风险进行了详细评估,因此研究结果应有助于从业人员和研究人员进行土地利用规划和降低风险的工作。
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ASSESSMENT OF URBAN FLOOD RISKS OF THE CITIES USING ENTROPY-VIKOR METHODS IN TÜRKİYE
In recent years, there is growing interest for evaluation of urban flood risks of cities over the past decade due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The optimal flood risk assessment is strategically achieved not only with classical risk modelling approaches but also with holistic and comprehensive framework. This paper focuses on a detailed flood assessment providing risk database for policymakers and urban planners to decide the flood prone areas in Turkey. In this context, the Entropy based VIKOR (VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje) was provided to evaluate a range of flood risk criteria named number of floods, population density and number of buildings, flood protection area which are under the concept of risk dimension including “hazard, exposure and vulnerability” aspects. Computational results demonstrate that the provinces of Şanlıurfa, Ordu, Zonguldak and Van are assigned with higher urban risk values, respectively and the ranking of the cities was presented with different q values. The findings should support practitioners and researchers for land use planning and risk reduction works as the detailed flood risk evaluation was presented in terms of the flood management.
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