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GIS-AHP APPROACH FOR A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK TO DETERMINE THE SUITABLE REGIONS FOR GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANTS IN IZMIR, TÜRKİYE 确定土耳其伊兹密尔地热发电厂适宜区域综合框架的 GIS-AP 方法
Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1381523
K. Koca, Fatih Kari̇poğlu, E. Zeray Öztürk
Geothermal energy is gaining more reputation and importance around the world. Correspondingly, suitable location selection is a critical step and has become necessary for the successful installation and operation of geothermal power plants. This study investigated suitability of İzmir region, located in the Aegean part of Türkiye, in terms of geothermal power plants applications by using the combination of Geographical Information System and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Based on the request of power plants, thirteen important criteria were evaluated under three main categories named as physical (C1), environmental (C2) and technical (C3). Moreover, expert’s opinions were taken into consideration to calculate the importance of these criteria. Key results showed that İzmir was suitable for geothermal power plants. The final suitability map layer pointed out that %8.73 (1.037 km2) of total area were determined as highly suitable regions in terms of installation. In addition, the obtained suitability map layer was compared with actual geothermal power plants. Based on the comparison study, power plants in Seferihisar were moderately suitable for geothermal power plants while the location of Balçova power plant was highly suitable. Regarding the suitability assessment in the present study, the location of Dikili power plants had the least suitability score.
地热能源在全球范围内的声誉和重要性与日俱增。因此,选择合适的地点是成功安装和运行地热发电厂的关键步骤和必要条件。本研究通过结合使用地理信息系统和层次分析法,对位于土耳其爱琴海地区的伊兹密尔地区在地热发电厂应用方面的适宜性进行了调查。根据发电厂的要求,按照物理(C1)、环境(C2)和技术(C3)三大类别对 13 项重要标准进行了评估。此外,在计算这些标准的重要性时还考虑了专家的意见。主要结果显示,伊兹密尔适合建立地热发电厂。最终的适宜性图层指出,总面积的 %8.73 (1.037 平方公里)被确定为非常适合安装的地区。此外,还将获得的适宜性图层与实际地热发电厂进行了比较。根据对比研究,塞费里希萨尔的发电厂与地热发电厂的适配性一般,而巴尔乔瓦发电厂的位置则非常适合。在本研究的适宜性评估中,迪基利发电厂位置的适宜性得分最低。
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引用次数: 0
MACHINE WHELL EDGE DETECTION MORPHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS 机器边缘检测形态学操作
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1418523
Pınar Karakuş
One of the critical issues of image processing, defined as obtaining useful information from the image and improving the quality of the image, is edge detection. How edge detection performance will be affected by adding morphological operators to edge detection algorithms is among the issues that have not been fully resolved. In the study, Canny and Sobel edge detection algorithms were applied to different milling cutters used in machinability. Morphological operators were applied to the determined edges, and their effects on the edges were examined. Mean Square Error (MSE) and Peak Signal Noise Ratio (PSNR) values were used to compare the performances of edge detection algorithms. According to MSE and PSNR results, it was seen that the Canny algorithm gave better results than the Sobel algorithm. In addition, it was concluded that the images obtained as a result of the applied morphological operations provided better performance than the images that were not applied for both Canny and Sobel algorithms.
图像处理是指从图像中获取有用信息并提高图像质量,其关键问题之一是边缘检测。在边缘检测算法中加入形态学算子将如何影响边缘检测性能,是尚未完全解决的问题之一。在这项研究中,Canny 和 Sobel 边缘检测算法被应用于不同的铣刀加工中。对确定的边缘应用了形态算子,并检查了它们对边缘的影响。平均平方误差(MSE)和峰值信号噪声比(PSNR)值用于比较边缘检测算法的性能。根据 MSE 和 PSNR 结果,可以看出 Canny 算法比 Sobel 算法效果更好。此外,得出的结论是,在 Canny 算法和 Sobel 算法中,应用形态学运算后得到的图像比未应用形态学运算的图像性能更好。
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引用次数: 0
DETERMINATION BY NUMERICAL MODELING OF STRESS-STRAIN VARIATIONS RESULTING FROM GALLERY CROSS-SECTION CHANGES IN A LONGWALL TOP COAL CAVING PANEL 通过数值建模确定长壁顶煤塌陷面板巷道截面变化引起的应力应变变化
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1410892
Mehmet Mesutoğlu, İ. Özkan, Alfonso RODRIGUEZ DONO
As a major pillar of global energy production, coal mining requires continuous advancements in efficiency to contribute to the broader goal of energy sustainability, all the while the shift towards more sustainable energy sources is underway. Mechanized excavation systems employed in underground coal mines, particularly within the longwall mining method, enable high-tonnage coal production. The Longwall Top Coal Caving (LTCC) method, one of the longwall mining techniques, has been developed for the effective extraction of coal from thick coal seams. However, as mining operations delve deeper, various complex issues, such as gallery cross-sectional variation, emerge. Gallery cross-sectional variation can increase the risk of collapse by affecting the stress distribution in the rock mass, posing a threat to worker safety. This study centers on the numerical modeling and analysis of gallery cross-sectional variation in the Ömerler underground mine, operated by the Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI), West Lignite Enterprise (GLI). To achieve this objective, an extensive database was established through field and laboratory rock mechanics studies. This database was then utilized in the Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua 3D (FLAC3D) (v6.0) program to simulate the cross-sectional variations of the A6 panel in the Ömerler underground mine. The numerical simulation results provide valuable insights into the secondary stress-deformation changes associated with gallery cross-sectional variation.
作为全球能源生产的主要支柱,煤炭开采需要不断提高效率,以实现能源可持续发展的更大目标,同时向更可持续的能源转变。地下煤矿采用的机械化采掘系统,特别是长壁开采方法,可以实现高吨位煤炭生产。长壁顶煤掘进法(LTCC)是长壁采矿技术之一,是为了从厚煤层中有效开采煤炭而开发的。然而,随着开采作业的深入,出现了各种复杂的问题,如巷道断面变化。巷道断面变化会影响岩体中的应力分布,从而增加坍塌风险,对工人安全构成威胁。本研究的重点是对土耳其煤炭企业(TKI)、西部褐煤企业(GLI)运营的厄梅勒地下煤矿的巷道断面变化进行数值建模和分析。为实现这一目标,通过现场和实验室岩石力学研究建立了一个庞大的数据库。然后,利用快速拉格朗日连续体分析三维(FLAC3D)(v6.0)程序利用该数据库模拟了厄梅勒地下煤矿 A6 面板的横截面变化。数值模拟结果为了解与巷道截面变化相关的二次应力-变形变化提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
PRODUCTION OF CuO/ZrO2 NANOCOMPOSITES IN POWDER AND FIBER FORMS 以粉末和纤维形式生产 CuO/ZrO2 纳米复合材料
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1410183
Zeynep Çetinkaya
CuO/ZrO2 composite systems were synthesized in two different ways and comprehensively characterized with X-ray diffraction(XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR), scanning electron microscopy(SEM), transmission electron microscopy(TEM), and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(EDX). These metal oxide samples were prepared by hydrothermal synthesis and electrospinning process. In these methods, the same metal salts were used as precursors. Separately produced ZrO2 nanoparticles(NPs) and CuO particles have spherical and cube-like shapes, and both morphologies have monoclinic structures. However, ZrO2 and CuO particles do not have uniform diameters, and the average size of these particles ranges between 6–17 and 215–847 nm, respectively. Moreover, CuO/ZrO2 nanocomposite particles(NCPs) were synthesized using a facile and one-pot hydrothermal technique. They have uniform, spherical, and monoclinic structures with a 15nm average diameter. Furthermore, ZrO2 fibers were produced with the electrospinning process as highly crystalline structures after annealing, with a 230 nm average fiber diameter. In addition, ZrO2 fibers were doped with hydrothermally synthesized CuO particles with a drop-casting method for the first time. This study clearly shows that particle-fiber structure allows the development of the efficiency of p-type counterparts by using only 0.5-1.5wt.% n-type. With these results, two methods can be used to produce heterostructure CuO/ZrO2 composite particles/fibers and as potential for photocatalytic degradation.
通过两种不同的方法合成了 CuO/ZrO2 复合体系,并利用 X 射线衍射(XRD)、傅立叶变换红外光谱(FTIR)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、透射电子显微镜(TEM)和能量色散 X 射线光谱(EDX)对其进行了全面表征。这些金属氧化物样品是通过水热合成和电纺丝工艺制备的。在这些方法中,使用了相同的金属盐作为前驱体。分别制备的 ZrO2 纳米颗粒(NPs)和 CuO 颗粒具有球形和立方体两种形状,并且两种形态均为单斜结构。然而,ZrO2 和 CuO 粒子的直径并不均匀,其平均尺寸分别为 6-17 纳米和 215-847 纳米。此外,CuO/ZrO2 纳米复合粒子(NCPs)是采用简单的一锅水热法合成的。它们具有均匀的球形单斜结构,平均直径为 15 纳米。此外,通过电纺丝工艺制得的 ZrO2 纤维在退火后具有高度结晶结构,平均纤维直径为 230 nm。此外,还首次用滴铸法在 ZrO2 纤维中掺入了水热合成的 CuO 粒子。这项研究清楚地表明,颗粒-纤维结构只需使用 0.5-1.5 重量百分比的 n 型材料,就能提高 p 型材料的效率。有了这些结果,就可以用两种方法来生产异质结构的 CuO/ZrO2 复合粒子/纤维,并将其作为光催化降解的潜在材料。
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引用次数: 0
ESTIMATING THE HARDNESS AND ABRASION PROPERTIES OF IGNEOUS ROCKS FROM CERCHAR INDENTATION DEPTH (CID 从陶瓷压痕深度估算火成岩的硬度和磨损特性 (cid)
Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1340820
A. Teymen
The most known and applied method for determining the abrasivity of rocks is the Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI). Properties of rocks such as abrasive mineral content, density, strength, and degree of cementation are the main factors affecting abrasivity, and these parameters likewise control their hardness properties. In this study, the average scratch depth formed on the rock surface after the CAI test was determined and it was investigated whether this calculated new parameter had the properties to represent the rock. Measurements were taken from four points along the scratch line formed on the surface with the help of a comparator and the average value was defined as the Cerchar Indentation Depth (CID). Measurements have shown that igneous rocks have CID values in the range of 0.01 mm-0.68 mm. Apart from the CID parameter, nine different properties (hardness, abrasivity, and physical) of fifty igneous rocks were tested. Statistically significant results were obtained by establishing relationships between CID and other rock mechanics tests. In CAI tests, it has been shown that CID measurements can be determined very sensitively if well-leveled core samples with parallel lower and upper surfaces are used. It has been determined that the CID value is directly related to the investigated rock properties and can be used as very useful experimental data in estimation studies.
确定岩石磨蚀性的最著名和最常用的方法是 Cerchar 磨蚀性指数 (CAI)。岩石的磨蚀矿物含量、密度、强度和胶结程度等属性是影响磨蚀性的主要因素,这些参数同样也控制着岩石的硬度属性。本研究测定了 CAI 试验后在岩石表面形成的平均划痕深度,并研究了这一计算出的新参数是否具有代表岩石的特性。在比较器的帮助下,沿着表面上形成的划痕线从四个点进行测量,并将平均值定义为 Cerchar 压痕深度 (CID)。测量结果表明,火成岩的 CID 值范围在 0.01 毫米至 0.68 毫米之间。除 CID 参数外,还测试了 50 块火成岩的九种不同特性(硬度、磨蚀性和物理特性)。通过建立 CID 与其他岩石力学测试之间的关系,得出了具有统计意义的结果。在 CAI 测试中,如果使用上下表面平行、水平良好的岩心样本,则可以非常灵敏地确定 CID 测量值。经确定,CID 值与所研究的岩石特性直接相关,可在估算研究中用作非常有用的实验数据。
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引用次数: 0
ENCAPSULATION OF VITAMIN D IN THE EXINE-ALGINATE-CHITOSAN MICROCAPSULE SYSTEM 将维生素 D 包囊在外显子-精氨酸-壳聚糖微胶囊系统中
Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1359158
Gülnur Duysak, I. Sargin
The insufficiency of vitamin D, resulting from inadequate exposure to sunlight and/or insufficient dietary intake, remains a major public health concern on a global scale. In this study, vitamin D2 and D3 were microencapsulated using sporopollenin exine microcapsules extracted from Cedrus libani pollens. After loading vitamin D into the microcapsules, they were coated with chitosan, an edible, biocompatible, and mucoadhesive polysaccharide, and alginate (a food additive agent coded E401). Exine microcapsules were extracted by microwave irradiation-assisted chemical method, and structural and morphological examination of exine structures was performed by FT-IR, TGA, SEM, and SEM-EDX analyses. After loading vitamin D into microcapsules in an ethanol medium, the loaded microcapsules were immobilised into the alginate matrix in a calcium chloride solution. D2 and D3 were loaded into 100 mg of sporopollenin exine microcapsules, resulting in loading efficiencies of 31.5 mg and 16.0 mg, respectively. The vitamin D release performance of the microcapsules was examined depending on time and temperature after they were coated with a thin chitosan layer. The release of the highest amount of vitamin D2 and D3 occurred at a temperature of 37°C. Encapsulating vitamin D molecules in chitosan and alginate creates a barrier against degrading environmental conditions, which helps prevent the loss of vitamin D biological activity. This can improve vitamin D dietary supplements' storage, preservation, and marketing requirements.
阳光照射不足和/或膳食摄入不足导致的维生素 D 不足仍然是全球关注的主要公共卫生问题。在这项研究中,使用从雪松花粉中提取的孢粉素外皮微胶囊对维生素 D2 和 D3 进行了微胶囊化。将维生素 D 装入微胶囊后,在微胶囊表面涂上壳聚糖(一种可食用、生物相容性和粘附性的多糖)和藻酸盐(一种食品添加剂,代码为 E401)。利用微波辐照辅助化学方法提取了外氨酸微胶囊,并通过傅立叶变换红外光谱、热重分析、扫描电镜和扫描电镜-电子显微镜分析对外氨酸结构和形态进行了检测。在乙醇介质中将维生素 D 装入微胶囊后,在氯化钙溶液中将装入的微胶囊固定在海藻酸盐基质中。将 D2 和 D3 装入 100 毫克孢粉外皮微胶囊中,装载效率分别为 31.5 毫克和 16.0 毫克。在微胶囊表面涂上一层薄薄的壳聚糖后,根据时间和温度的不同,考察了微胶囊的维生素 D 释放性能。在 37°C 的温度下,维生素 D2 和 D3 的释放量最高。将维生素 D 分子封装在壳聚糖和海藻酸盐中可形成一道屏障,防止环境条件降解,从而有助于防止维生素 D 生物活性的丧失。这可以改善维生素 D 膳食补充剂的储存、保存和销售要求。
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引用次数: 0
Klasik ve Bulanık Kenar Algılama Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması 经典边缘检测方法与模糊边缘检测方法的比较
Pub Date : 2024-02-02 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1116833
Gulcihan Ozdemi̇r
Edge detection is one of the challenging problems in image processing. Four different classical edge detection methods—Sobel, Prewitt, Roberts, and Canny—and type-1 and type-2 fuzzy logic-based edge detection methods are applied to analyze two separate datasets with various properties. The datasets are STARE which contains medical images of the retina and BIPED which contains images of the street. Furthermore, two separate hybrid fuzzy logic methods are implemented. The type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference techniques are combined to produce the hybrid-1 and hybrid-2 approaches, using the "AND" and "OR" logic operators. We compare the simulation results for each technique using three different image quality metrics. These are Mean Square Error (MSE), Peak Signal Noise Ratio (PSNR), and Structural Similarity Index (SSIM). The type-2 fuzzy technique outperformed the hybrid-1 fuzzy method in visual quality metrics comparison, demonstrating superior blood vessel recognition on the STARE retinal image dataset—a dataset that more closely resembles the human visual system. Using the BIPED street image dataset, the hybrid-1 fuzzy approach outperformed the Roberts method. The hybrid-1 fuzzy technique showed good results in the second order for both kinds of datasets. Any data and general applications can take advantage of it.
边缘检测是图像处理中极具挑战性的问题之一。四种不同的经典边缘检测方法--Sobel、Prewitt、Roberts 和 Canny,以及基于第一类和第二类模糊逻辑的边缘检测方法,被应用于分析两个具有不同属性的独立数据集。这两个数据集分别是包含视网膜医学图像的 STARE 数据集和包含街道图像的 BIPED 数据集。此外,还采用了两种不同的混合模糊逻辑方法。使用 "AND "和 "OR "逻辑运算符,将类型-1 和类型-2 模糊推理技术结合起来,产生了混合-1 和混合-2 方法。我们使用三种不同的图像质量指标来比较每种技术的模拟结果。这三个指标是平均平方误差(MSE)、峰值信号噪声比(PSNR)和结构相似性指数(SSIM)。在视觉质量指标比较中,第 2 类模糊技术优于第 1 类混合模糊方法,在 STARE 视网膜图像数据集--一个更接近人类视觉系统的数据集--上显示出更出色的血管识别能力。在使用 BIPED 街道图像数据集时,混合-1 模糊方法的性能优于罗伯茨方法。对于这两种数据集,混合-1 模糊技术都显示出了二阶的良好效果。任何数据和一般应用都可以利用它。
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引用次数: 0
ADSORPTION OF MALACHITE GREEN INTO POTATO PEEL: NONLINEAR ISOTHERM AND KINETIC 马铃薯皮对孔雀石绿的吸附:非线性等温线与动力学
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1379888
I. Küçük, Halil Bi̇çi̇çi̇
Potato peels (PPs) were utilized for removal of malachite green (MG) from aqueous solutions. The adsorbent underwent characterization through attenuated total reflection fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), Scanning electron microscope (SEM), point zero charge (pHPZC) X-Ray diffraction (XRD), and Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). The removal of MG was found to be significantly influenced by pH, temperature, contact time, and initial concentration. Temperature and particle size were determined to have lesser influence compared to other factors. The adsorption process lasted for 120 minutes, with rapid removal occurring within the first 60 minutes. Adsorption kinetics were analyzed using the Elovich, pseudo first order, and pseudo second order models. The pseudo second order model was found to be more suitable for the kinetic study. Isotherm modeling was conducted using the Temkin, Freundlich, and Langmuir isotherms. Due to the exothermic nature of the study, the Freundlich and Langmuir models were found to be highly compatible. The maximum adsorption capacity was determined as 37.8 mg/g at 41°C. ATR-FTIR analysis revealed the involvement of hydroxide and carbonyl groups in the adsorption process. Overall, this study concluded that PPs is promising adsorbent for removal of MG from aqueous solutions.
利用马铃薯皮(PPs)去除水溶液中的孔雀石绿(MG)。通过衰减全反射傅立叶变换红外光谱(ATR-FTIR)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、零点电荷(pHPZC)X 射线衍射(XRD)和能量色散 X 射线光谱(EDX)对吸附剂进行了表征。研究发现,MG 的去除率受 pH 值、温度、接触时间和初始浓度的显著影响。与其他因素相比,温度和颗粒大小的影响较小。吸附过程持续了 120 分钟,在最初的 60 分钟内迅速去除。使用埃洛维奇、伪一阶和伪二阶模型对吸附动力学进行了分析。结果发现,伪二阶模型更适合动力学研究。使用 Temkin、Freundlich 和 Langmuir 等温线建立了等温线模型。由于研究具有放热性质,因此发现 Freundlich 和 Langmuir 模型具有很高的兼容性。41°C 时的最大吸附容量为 37.8 毫克/克。ATR-FTIR 分析表明,氢氧根和羰基参与了吸附过程。总之,这项研究认为 PPs 是一种很有前途的吸附剂,可用于去除水溶液中的 MG。
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF URBAN FLOOD RISKS OF THE CITIES USING ENTROPY-VIKOR METHODS IN TÜRKİYE 使用熵-维科方法评估土耳其城市的洪水风险
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1281943
Onur Derse, Elifcan Göçmen Polat
In recent years, there is growing interest for evaluation of urban flood risks of cities over the past decade due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The optimal flood risk assessment is strategically achieved not only with classical risk modelling approaches but also with holistic and comprehensive framework. This paper focuses on a detailed flood assessment providing risk database for policymakers and urban planners to decide the flood prone areas in Turkey. In this context, the Entropy based VIKOR (VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje) was provided to evaluate a range of flood risk criteria named number of floods, population density and number of buildings, flood protection area which are under the concept of risk dimension including “hazard, exposure and vulnerability” aspects. Computational results demonstrate that the provinces of Şanlıurfa, Ordu, Zonguldak and Van are assigned with higher urban risk values, respectively and the ranking of the cities was presented with different q values. The findings should support practitioners and researchers for land use planning and risk reduction works as the detailed flood risk evaluation was presented in terms of the flood management.
近年来,由于快速城市化和气候变化,人们对过去十年城市洪水风险评估的兴趣与日俱增。最佳的洪水风险评估不仅可以通过传统的风险建模方法,还可以通过整体和综合框架来实现。本文侧重于详细的洪水评估,为政策制定者和城市规划者提供风险数据库,以决定土耳其的洪水易发地区。在此背景下,基于熵的 VIKOR(VonseKriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje)被用来评估一系列洪水风险标准,包括洪水次数、人口密度和建筑物数量、防洪保护区,这些都属于风险维度的概念,包括 "危害、暴露和脆弱性 "等方面。计算结果表明,桑尼乌尔法省、奥尔杜省、宗古尔达克省和凡省的城市风险值分别较高,各城市的排名呈现不同的 q 值。由于从洪水管理的角度对洪水风险进行了详细评估,因此研究结果应有助于从业人员和研究人员进行土地利用规划和降低风险的工作。
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引用次数: 0
ESTIMATIONS OF GREEN HOUSE GASES EMISSIONS OF TURKEY BY STATISTICAL METHODS 用统计方法估算土耳其的温室气体排放量
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.36306/konjes.1267008
Suat Öztürk, Ahmet Emir
The way of life, consumption habits, urbanization rate, type of energy production and increasing energy need with growing economies and population progressively promote the GHGs emissions to Earth’s atmosphere. GHGs consisting of CH4, N2O, CO2, H2O and HFCs cause the climate change, disrupting ecological balance, melting glaciers with global warming in the last decades. Therefore, the issues of future prediction and reduction of GHGs emissions became crucial for policy makers of Turkey and other countries under the international protocols and agreements. This article aims to present the prediction and 8-year future forecasting of CH4, N2O and CO2 emissions of Turkey using past annual data between years 1970 and 2018 with grey, autoregressive integrated moving average and double exponential smoothing models. Based on the results, the best prediction performance is reached by DES model followed by ARIMA and GM for all the emissions. MAPEs calculated from the available data and prediction by DES model from 1970 to 2018 are 0.285, 0.355 and 0.408 for CH4, N2O and CO2 in turn. DES future estimations of CH4, N2O and CO2 at 2026 year are determined as 50700 kiloton of CO2 eq., 38100 thousand metric ton of CO2 eq., and 512000 kilotons.
随着经济和人口的增长,生活方式、消费习惯、城市化率、能源生产类型和日益增长的能源需求都在逐步促进温室气体向地球大气层的排放。过去几十年来,由 CH4、N2O、CO2、H2O 和 HFCs 组成的温室气体导致气候变化,破坏生态平衡,冰川融化,全球变暖。因此,根据国际议定书和协议,未来预测和减少温室气体排放问题对土耳其和其他国家的决策者至关重要。本文旨在利用 1970 年至 2018 年的过去年度数据,采用灰色、自回归综合移动平均和双指数平滑模型,对土耳其的甲烷、一氧化二氮和二氧化碳排放量进行预测和未来 8 年的预测。结果表明,DES 模型的预测效果最佳,其次是 ARIMA 模型和 GM 模型。根据现有数据计算得出的 MAPE 和 DES 模型从 1970 年到 2018 年对 CH4、N2O 和 CO2 的预测值分别为 0.285、0.355 和 0.408。根据 DES 预测,2026 年 CH4、N2O 和 CO2 的未来排放量分别为 50700 千吨 CO2 当量、38100 千吨 CO2 当量和 512000 千吨 CO2 当量。
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引用次数: 0
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Konya Journal of Engineering Sciences
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