先生的科维-19 疾病传播与疫苗有效性数学模型

Nia Armita, L. Harini, Ida Ayu Putu Ari Utari
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摘要

科罗娜病毒病(COVID-19)是自 2019 年年底以来蔓延全球的疾病疫情之一。这种疾病会导致感染者出现呼吸道感染,风险相当高。数学的一个分支可以帮助克服这种情况,那就是形成数学模型。所形成的模型是 SIR 模型,基本上描述了疾病在易感(S)、感染(I)、康复(R)等级中的传播情况,但在本研究中,感染(I)等级被分为两类,并添加了降低疫苗有效性的参数。然后利用前一个模型以无疾病平衡点的形式找到一个解,该点将被用来形成一个基本繁殖数。为了证明所发现的平衡点是稳定的,将进行稳定性分析,并在所形成的模型中发现无疾病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的,条件是: 1.经过分析发现,疫苗效力的下降率对感染类别有相当大的影响。
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MODEL MATEMATIKA SIR PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT COVID-19 DENGAN EFEKTIVITAS VAKSIN
Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) is one of the disease outbreaks that has spread throughout the world since the end of 2019. This disease causes infected individuals to experience infections in the respiratory tract with a fairly high risk. One branch of mathematics that can help overcome this case is the formation of mathematical models. The model formed is the SIR model basically describes the spread of disease in the Susceptible (S), Infected (I), Recovered (R) classes, but in this study the Infected (I) class was classified into two and added parameters to decrease vaccine effectiveness. The former model is then used to find a solution in the form of a disease-free equilibrium point, where the point will be used to form a basic reproduction number. To prove that the equilibrium point found to be stable, a stability analysis will be carried out and in the model that has been formed it is found that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotic stable with the condition that. After analysis, it was found that the rate of decline in vaccine effectiveness was quite influential on the class of infection .
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