{"title":"超越经济发展?外国直接投资与选举前暴力","authors":"Tabea Palmtag, Katrin Paula, Tobias Rommel","doi":"10.1177/00223433231214427","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Incumbents who resort to violence in efforts to secure their hold on power have been a major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, opening up domestic markets to international capital in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has provided governments with more resources to garner the support of their citizens. How are these developments related? We argue that FDI reduces the likelihood that incumbents use violence in competitive regions. FDI has direct economic benefits for the population. Especially in competitive regions, where violence might reduce turnout even among their potential supporters, incumbents thus adapt their re-election strategies and use fewer violent means. We draw on geo-referenced data on election violence, FDI, and previous election results and match these within subnational regions. Investigating subnational variation in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, we find empirical support for our argument. FDI lowers pre-election violence in competitive regions, but has no effect in both incumbent and opposition strongholds. These findings are robust to using 10×10 km and 25×25 km grid cells and have important implications for democratic countries’ foreign policies: allowing multinational companies to invest in developing countries reduces violence, but might simultaneously bolster incumbent regimes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Beyond economic development? Foreign direct investment and pre-election violence\",\"authors\":\"Tabea Palmtag, Katrin Paula, Tobias Rommel\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/00223433231214427\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Incumbents who resort to violence in efforts to secure their hold on power have been a major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, opening up domestic markets to international capital in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has provided governments with more resources to garner the support of their citizens. How are these developments related? We argue that FDI reduces the likelihood that incumbents use violence in competitive regions. FDI has direct economic benefits for the population. Especially in competitive regions, where violence might reduce turnout even among their potential supporters, incumbents thus adapt their re-election strategies and use fewer violent means. We draw on geo-referenced data on election violence, FDI, and previous election results and match these within subnational regions. Investigating subnational variation in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, we find empirical support for our argument. FDI lowers pre-election violence in competitive regions, but has no effect in both incumbent and opposition strongholds. These findings are robust to using 10×10 km and 25×25 km grid cells and have important implications for democratic countries’ foreign policies: allowing multinational companies to invest in developing countries reduces violence, but might simultaneously bolster incumbent regimes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48324,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Peace Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Peace Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231214427\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Peace Research","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231214427","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Beyond economic development? Foreign direct investment and pre-election violence
Incumbents who resort to violence in efforts to secure their hold on power have been a major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, opening up domestic markets to international capital in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has provided governments with more resources to garner the support of their citizens. How are these developments related? We argue that FDI reduces the likelihood that incumbents use violence in competitive regions. FDI has direct economic benefits for the population. Especially in competitive regions, where violence might reduce turnout even among their potential supporters, incumbents thus adapt their re-election strategies and use fewer violent means. We draw on geo-referenced data on election violence, FDI, and previous election results and match these within subnational regions. Investigating subnational variation in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, we find empirical support for our argument. FDI lowers pre-election violence in competitive regions, but has no effect in both incumbent and opposition strongholds. These findings are robust to using 10×10 km and 25×25 km grid cells and have important implications for democratic countries’ foreign policies: allowing multinational companies to invest in developing countries reduces violence, but might simultaneously bolster incumbent regimes.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Peace Research is an interdisciplinary and international peer reviewed bimonthly journal of scholarly work in peace research. Edited at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), by an international editorial committee, Journal of Peace Research strives for a global focus on conflict and peacemaking. From its establishment in 1964, authors from over 50 countries have published in JPR. The Journal encourages a wide conception of peace, but focuses on the causes of violence and conflict resolution. Without sacrificing the requirements for theoretical rigour and methodological sophistication, articles directed towards ways and means of peace are favoured.