规划降解试验的检查时间

Rong Pan, Guanqi Fang
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摘要

降解测试通常伴随着预先确定的产品检查计划,因为在大多数情况下,对产品性能进行实时监控即使不是不可能,也是很困难的。如果检查计划的目的是在实际故障发生前预测故障时间,那么随着时间的推移,随着测试单元的老化而逐渐增加检查频率是合理的。奇怪的是,降级测试(DT)规划文献中对这一策略的讨论并不多。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于风险的检查 (RBI) 方法来确定最终检查时间。通过平衡失效概率和失效后果,我们将最佳检查时间放在失效风险最高的时刻,因此更接近工程师实际关心的软失效时间。此外,我们还测试了三种检查调度策略--等距离检查时间策略、等比例检查时间策略和中间检查时间策略。结果发现,逐步增加中间检查时间可以增强退化模型的预测性能。通过仿真,我们发现该检查计划的性能优于其他计划。
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Planning Inspection Times for Degradation Tests
Degradation tests are often accompanied by pre-defined product inspection plans because real-time monitoring of product performance is difficult, if not impossible, in most cases. If the purpose of an inspection plan is to predict a failure time before an actual failure happens, it is reasonable to increase inspection frequency gradually over time as the test unit deteriorates over time. Curiously, this strategy has not been discussed much in the degradation test (DT) planning literature. In this paper, we propose a risk-based inspection (RBI) method to determine the final inspection time. By balancing the probability of failure and the consequence of failure, we place the optimal inspection time at the moment of highest failure risk, thus it is closer to the soft failure time that engineers actually care about. Furthermore, we test three inspection scheduling strategies - the equal-distance inspection time strategy, the equal-proportion inspection time strategy, and the middle inspection time strategy. It is found that progressively adding middle inspection times can enhance the prediction property of the degradation model. Through simulation, we show that this inspection plan performs better than other plans.
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