Comparison of nonlinear trends and influencing factors of carbon sinks in four ecological restoration projects in China

China's ecological restoration projects aim to safeguard natural forests, improve the ecological environment, and achieve carbon neutrality. Previous studies at multiple scales have reported that the ecological projects contributed to enhancing carbon sinks. However, the effect of these projects on the carbon sinks has remained uncertain. Thus, we conducted a comparative analysis of nonlinear trends and influencing factors of carbon sink trends in the four ecological restoration project areas. Our findings suggested that the Pearl River shelterbelt program and middle reaches of the Yellow River shelterbelt program areas have experienced significant enhancements in ecosystem carbon sinks. The carbon sink exhibiting monotonically increasing trends and decreasing to increasing trends (positive shifts) accounted for 74.48% and 71.76% in these two shelterbelt program areas, respectively. However, less than half of the carbon sinks (41.38% and 31.80%, respectively) demonstrated monotonically increasing trends or positive shifts in the Yangtze River and Three North Shelterbelt program areas. The high background value of carbon sinks played a crucial role in the monotonically increasing trends of carbon sinks in the four ecological restoration projects. Additionally, in the Pearl River program areas, economic development and urban greening promoted the monotonically increasing trends of carbon sink. In the Yellow River program areas, CO₂ fertilization, appropriate warming, and increased precipitation were helpful to promote the carbon sink with monotonically increasing trends. Moreover, the positive shifts of the carbon sinks were attributed to the implementation of these two ecological restoration projects. However, the low temperature and drought hindered the enhancement of carbon sinks in the Three North program areas, and extreme climate (flood and drought) hindered it in the Yangtze River program areas. These findings can provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects on terrestrial ecosystems and offer practical guidelines to achieve carbon neutrality.