{"title":"技术发展是否存在普遍限制?来自天体生物学的证据","authors":"Antonio Gelis-Filho","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103379","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103379"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Is there a universal limit to technological development? Evidences from astrobiology\",\"authors\":\"Antonio Gelis-Filho\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103379\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48239,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Futures\",\"volume\":\"159 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103379\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Futures\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000624\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Futures","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000624","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Is there a universal limit to technological development? Evidences from astrobiology
Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.
期刊介绍:
Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures